FII Activity: Neutral Stance in Nifty Index Futures with Minimal Positioning Shift
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a neutral stance in the Nifty Index Futures market, buying just 681 contracts worth ₹112 crore. This resulted in a net open interest increase of 169 contracts, indicating a lack of strong directional conviction from FIIs.
Breaking Down FII Activity
✔ FIIs added 673 long contracts, showing minimal bullish intent.
✔ FIIs added 165 short contracts, reinforcing a balanced approach rather than aggressive positioning.
✔ FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.22 → FIIs remain heavily short-biased overall, but no significant increase in bearish bets.
Client Behavior
✔ Clients added 4,243 long contracts, suggesting bullish positioning.
✔ Clients added 3,039 short contracts, indicating hedging but not strong bearish conviction.
✔ Clients Long-to-Short Ratio: 2.17 → Clients remain bullish overall.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
FIIs: Still heavily short-biased (Long: 22%, Short: 78%), but not aggressively adding to positions.
Clients: Leaning bullish (Long: 69%, Short: 31%), expecting a rebound.
Balancing Aggression & Defense in Trading: How to Protect Profits While Maximizing Gains
As discussed in the weekly video, we anticipated a top formation today, and after market close, news surfaced that IndusInd Bank found accounting discrepancies in its derivatives portfolio. This negative development, combined with technical breakdown and astro factors, suggests high volatility in the next two sessions.
Key Technical & Astro Factors
✔ Outside Bar after DOJI
✔ Venus Conjunct Mercury Aspect: Historically known for triggering volatility in financial markets.
✔ Bayer Rule 15 in Effect:
“Venus Heliocentric Latitude at Extreme and Least Speeds often leads to major moves.”
This rule suggests a high-probability trend acceleration in the next two trading sessions.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Defense Zone:22400-22365 → Bulls must hold this range to prevent further downside.
Bearish Breakdown Below 22350: Could trigger a sharp decline towards 22250/22108
Nifty opened with a gap down but rebounded sharply as Venus-Mercury conjunction and support at the Gann Monthly TC level (22,336) triggered a strong rally, closing above 22,444.
Key Astro & Technical Insights
✔ Bayer Rule 21 (Variation C) in Effect:
“Strong moves within 5-8 days occur when retrograde Venus makes a conjunction with retrograde Mercury.”
This suggests a potential trend acceleration in the coming sessions.
✔ Price Holding Gann Monthly TC Level: Indicates strong buying interest at lower levels.
Intraday Strategy – First 15-Minute Range Will Set the Tone
Bullish Confirmation: Break above first 15-minute high → Rally towards 22,600 / 22,750.
Bearish Breakdown: Break below first 15-minute low → Decline towards 22,300 / 22,250.
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
✔ If Nifty stays above 22,444, expect continuation towards 22,600+.
✔ A move below 22,336 could bring renewed selling pressure.
✔ First 15-minute range is crucial—watch for breakout or breakdown confirmation.
Final Thoughts: With astro cycles and Gann support aligning, expect strong movement in the next few sessions. Be ready for a decisive trend!
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22544 for a move towards 22618/22693/22767. Bears will get active below 22469 for a move towards 22395/22320.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 11:28,12:37,01:35 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty March Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.75 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 1 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the decrease in Cost of Carry implies that there was closeure of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 21:29 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @22724 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :22336 closed above it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 22649 Trend has changed to Buy on Dips till above 22336
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22500 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.88.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22500 strike, followed by 22600 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22400 strike, followed by 22300 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22300-22600 levels.
Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights & Market Outlook
The latest options data suggests mixed sentiment, with retail traders leaning bearish and FIIs maintaining a neutral stance with high call activity on both sides.
Retail Activity in Options Market
Retail traders showed a bearish tilt, with aggressive call shorting and put additions.
Call Options:
- Added 31K contracts, indicating some bullish bets.
- Shorted 123K contracts, signaling expectations of resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 159K contracts, suggesting strong downside hedging.
- Shorted 85K contracts, showing some confidence that support levels will hold.
Retail Takeaway:
Retail traders are heavily shorting calls while adding puts, suggesting bearish expectations or a range-bound market with downward bias.
FII Activity in Options Market
FIIs remained neutral, adding and shorting almost equal amounts of calls and puts.
Call Options:
- Added 508K contracts, showing some bullish positioning.
- Shorted 483K contracts, reinforcing strong resistance levels.
Put Options:
- Added 159K contracts, indicating some downside hedging.
- Shorted 85K contracts, slightly reducing bearish exposure.
FII Takeaway:
FIIs are heavily trading calls on both sides, suggesting they are positioning for volatility rather than a strong directional move.
✔ Retail traders are positioned for a bearish or range-bound market, with strong call shorting.
✔ FIIs are taking a neutral stance, with high call activity but no strong directional bias.
✔ If support holds, call short covering could trigger a sharp move up.
✔ If resistance holds, retail put additions may accelerate downside momentum.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 2823 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2001 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22094-22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Don’t be afraid to ask for help. If you’re struggling with trading, don’t be afraid to ask for help from a more experienced trader. There are many resources available to help you improve your trading skills.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 22460 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22493 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 22525 Tgt 22575, 22610 and 22666 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 22471 Tgt 22420, 22385 and 22323 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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Can you provide insights of FII and Client data in numbers in your blog post? Because it will give us an edge of how many contracts or money they adding in contracts. We can analysis the difference between FII and Retail clients.
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