FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures with Fresh Short Positions
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a bearish stance in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively shorting 1,048 contracts worth ₹177 crore. This activity resulted in a net open interest increase of 1,086 contracts, indicating fresh short positions being built on both Long and Shorts as shown in breakdown below.
Breaking Down FII Activity
✔ FIIs added 449 long contracts, showing minimal bullish interest.
✔ FIIs added 2,252 short contracts, reinforcing their bearish outlook.
✔ FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.22 → Indicates that FIIs are heavily short-biased.
✔ Clients covered 1,051 long contracts, suggesting profit booking or reducing bullish bets.
✔ Clients covered 199 short contracts, signaling some short unwinding, but not a major sentiment shift.
✔ Clients Long-to-Short Ratio: 2.39 → Indicates Clients are heavily long-biased.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
FIIs: 18% Long / 82% Short → Extremely bearish positioning, actively adding fresh shorts.
Clients: 71% Long / 29% Short → Strongly bullish positioning, betting on upside continuation.
Bulls successfully defended the 22,250 level, with today’s low at 22,245, precisely aligning with Mercury Ingress and the Venus Retrograde high. As expected, Nifty rallied to 22,500, confirming the confluence of Gann price levels and astro cycles in identifying the bottom.
Key Levels to Watch for Weekly Close
Bullish Confirmation: A close above 22,666 will strengthen momentum heading into next week.
Strong Support: 22,250–22,300 remains the critical demand zone.
Upside Target: Sustaining above 22,666 can push Nifty towards 22,775–22,820 next week.
With astro and Gann factors aligning, bulls have regained control, but weekly closing above 22,666 is key for sustained upside.
Nifty continued its rally, forming a higher high, but failed to close above 22,600, ending the session with a Doji near the 1×3 Gann Angle resistance zone, signaling indecision and potential reversal or consolidation.
Key Astro & Technical Insights
✔ Bayer Rule 27 in Effect Today:
“Big tops and major bottoms occur when Mercury’s speed in Geocentric longitude is 59 minutes or 1 degree 58 minutes.”
✔ Price Action: Doji formation near key resistance suggests a potential pause or reversal.
✔ Gann Confluence: Price reacting at 1×3 Gann Angle resistance increases the importance of this level.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Case: Above 22,450, price can extend towards 22,885.
Bearish Case: Below 22,424, bears will gain control, leading to a possible correction.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22544 for a move towards 22618/22693/22767. Bears will get active below 22469 for a move towards 22395/22320. — Closed above 22544 waiting for 22618/22693/22767
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:14,11:35,12:44,01:23,02:02 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty March Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.80 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 0.51 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the decrease in Cost of Carry implies that there was closeure of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 24:26 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @22724 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :22194 closed above it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 22748 Trend has changed to Buy on Dips till above 22331
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22500 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.88.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22600 strike, followed by 22800 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22400 strike, followed by 22300 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22300-22600 levels.
Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights & Market Outlook
Analyzing retail and FII positioning in the options market provides a clear picture of market sentiment and potential price movement. Here’s a breakdown of today’s data:
Retail Activity in Options Market
Retail traders displayed a neutral stance, with equal call and put activity, suggesting range-bound expectations.
Call Options:
- Added 529K contracts, indicating some bullish bets.
- Shorted 535K contracts, signaling expectations of resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 401K contracts, suggesting hedging against downside risk.
- Shorted 424K contracts, showing confidence that support levels will hold.
Retail Takeaway:
Retail traders are expecting a range-bound market, balancing both bullish and bearish positions.
FII Activity in Options Market
FIIs showed a slightly bullish tilt, adding more calls than puts and reducing put exposure.
Call Options:
- Added 125K contracts, indicating interest in an upside move.
- Shorted 89K contracts, reinforcing expectations of limited upside.
Put Options:
- Added 178K contracts, hedging against potential downside.
- Shorted 128K contracts, reducing bearish exposure, suggesting less conviction in a big fall.
FII Takeaway:
FIIs are positioning for a potential upside move, but their call shorting suggests some caution at higher levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 2035 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2320 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22094-22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Don’t be afraid to ask for help. If you’re struggling with trading, don’t be afraid to ask for help from a more experienced trader. There are many resources available to help you improve your trading skills.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 22434 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22653, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 22575 Tgt 22600, 22636 and 22699 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 22525 Tgt 22500, 22466 and 22424 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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