FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Bank Nifty Index Futures with Fresh Shorts
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a bearish stance in the Bank Nifty Index Futures market, actively shorting 1223 contracts worth ₹176 crore. This led to a net open interest increase of 1705 contracts, signaling new short positions being added.
Key Takeaways from FII Activity
✔ Increase in open interest (+1705 contracts) confirms that FIIs are building fresh short positions.
✔ Though the net short volume is low, the rise in OI suggests cautious bearish positioning.
✔ FIIs are not aggressively shorting but are maintaining a defensive approach.
Balancing Aggression & Defense in Trading: How to Protect Profits While Maximizing Gains
As discussed in the weekly video, we anticipated a top formation today, and after market close, news surfaced that IndusInd Bank found accounting discrepancies in its derivatives portfolio. This negative development, combined with technical breakdown and astro factors, suggests high volatility in the next two sessions.
Key Technical & Astro Factors
✔ Inside Bar Breakdown: Price has broken the inside bar range to the downside, signaling potential continuation of weakness.
✔ Venus Conjunct Mercury Aspect: Historically known for triggering volatility in financial markets.
✔ Bayer Rule 15 in Effect:
“Venus Heliocentric Latitude at Extreme and Least Speeds often leads to major moves.”
This rule suggests a high-probability trend acceleration in the next two trading sessions.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Defense Zone: 47,800–47,841 → Bulls must hold this range to prevent further downside.
Bearish Breakdown Below 47,800: Could trigger a sharp decline towards 47,500 / 47,200.
Bank Nifty declined sharply following the IndusInd Bank collapse (-27%), but formed a Doji at the Gann angle support zone, signaling indecision and potential reversal or continuation.
Key Technical & Astro Factors
✔ Doji Formation at Gann Angle Support → Indicates price hesitation after a sharp fall.
✔ Bayer Rule 21 (Variation C) in Effect Today →
“Strong moves within 5-8 days occur when retrograde Venus makes a conjunction with retrograde Mercury.”
This astro setup suggests a high-probability trend acceleration in the coming sessions.
Key Intraday Strategy – First 15-Minute Range Will Guide the Day
Bullish Confirmation: Break above first 15-minute high → Could lead to a rebound towards 48,200 / 48,500.
Bearish Breakdown: Break below first 15-minute low → Could extend the decline towards 47,500 / 47,200.
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
✔ If Bank Nifty holds the Doji low and reclaims key resistance, a strong bounce is possible.
✔ If weakness continues, a break below support could lead to further downside.
✔ With Bayer Rule 21 in effect, expect increased volatility and a decisive move in the coming sessions.
Final Thoughts: The first 15-minute range will set the tone for the day—stay alert for breakout or breakdown confirmation.
Bank Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 47921 for a move towards 48030/48139/48248.Bears will get active below 47734 for a move towards 47513/47292/47071
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 11:28,12:37,01:35 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Bank Nifty March Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 29.9 lakh, with additon of 1.4 lakh contracts. Additionally, the Increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a addition of SHORT positions today.
Bank Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 04:07 and Bank Nifty Rollover Cost is @49026 closed Below it.
Bank Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :48414 closed below it.
Bank Nifty closed below 20 SMA @48798,Trend is Buy on Dips once above 48000
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Bank Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Bank Nifty may follow a path of 51408-49965-48521-47159. This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Bank Nifty moves through these levels. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
According to the Bank Nifty options chain, the call side has the highest open interest (OI) at the 48500 strike, followed by the 49000 strike. On the put side, the 47500 strike has the highest OI, followed by the 47000 strike.This indicates that market participants anticipate Bank Nifty to stay within the 47500-48500 range.
The Bank Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 48000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.76. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. PCR is on extreme end suggesting we can see sharp reversal .
Don’t be afraid to ask for help. If you’re struggling with trading, don’t be afraid to ask for help from a more experienced trader. There are many resources available to help you improve your trading skills.
For Positional Traders, The Bank Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 48572 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 47963 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
BANK Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 47900 Tgt 48021, 48188 and 48347 ( BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 47800 Tgt 47694, 47555 and 47368 (BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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