FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures with Fresh Short Positions
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a bearish stance, actively shorting 7,405 contracts worth ₹1,190 crore. This resulted in a net open interest increase of 3,839 contracts, signaling fresh short positions being built.
Breaking Down FII Activity
✔ FIIs covered 684 long contracts, reducing their bullish exposure.
✔ FIIs added 3,826 short contracts, reinforcing their bearish outlook.
✔ FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.21 → FIIs remain heavily short-biased (Long: 18%, Short: 82 %), but not aggressively increasing their bearish bets.
Client Behavior
✔ Clients added 2,421 long contracts, showing confidence in a potential rebound.
✔ Clients covered 3,636 short contracts, signaling reduced bearish conviction.
✔ Clients Long-to-Short Ratio: 2.27 → Clients remain bullish overall (Long: 69%, Short: 31%).
Current Positioning in Index Futures
FIIs: Strong bearish bias, but not aggressively adding new shorts.
Clients: Bullish bias, expecting a market recovery.
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Nifty opened with a gap down but rebounded sharply as Venus-Mercury conjunction and support at the Gann Monthly TC level (22,336) triggered a strong rally, closing above 22,444.
Key Astro & Technical Insights
✔ Bayer Rule 21 (Variation C) in Effect:
“Strong moves within 5-8 days occur when retrograde Venus makes a conjunction with retrograde Mercury.”
This suggests a potential trend acceleration in the coming sessions.
✔ Price Holding Gann Monthly TC Level: Indicates strong buying interest at lower levels.
Intraday Strategy – First 15-Minute Range Will Set the Tone
Bullish Confirmation: Break above first 15-minute high → Rally towards 22,600 / 22,750.
Bearish Breakdown: Break below first 15-minute low → Decline towards 22,300 / 22,250.
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
✔ If Nifty stays above 22,444, expect continuation towards 22,600+.
✔ A move below 22,336 could bring renewed selling pressure.
✔ First 15-minute range is crucial—watch for breakout or breakdown confirmation.
Final Thoughts: With astro cycles and Gann support aligning, expect strong movement in the next few sessions. Be ready for a decisive trend!
India’s inflation rate dipped to 3.61%, lower than expected, boosting market sentiment. Nifty has held the Gann Trend Change level of 22,336 for the past two trading sessions, reinforcing this as a crucial support zone.
Key Technical & Astro Insights
✔ Weekly Close Tomorrow (March 13) – Market Closed on March 14 (Holi Holiday)
✔ Bulls’ Target: A close above 22,600–22,630 to confirm strength.
✔ Bears’ Target: A close below 22,336 to trigger further downside.
✔ Lunar Eclipse & Mercury Ingress This Weekend:
- Market likely to open with a gap on Monday (March 18) → Hedge overnight positions.
- Keep an eye on Real Estate & IT stocks due to the impact of Saturn & Mercury.
✔ If Nifty holds above 22,336 and closes strong, expect further upside next week.
✔ If price closes below this level, expect increased volatility post-Holi.
✔ Lunar Eclipse & Mercury Ingress indicate heightened volatility—manage risk carefully.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22544 for a move towards 22618/22693/22767. Bears will get active below 22469 for a move towards 22395/22320.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 11:24,12:26,01:53 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty March Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.74 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 1.19 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the decrease in Cost of Carry implies that there was closeure of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 19:31 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @22724 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :22336 closed above it Holding from last 2 trading session.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 22619 Trend has changed to Buy on Dips till above 22336
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22500 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.88.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22500 strike, followed by 22600 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22400 strike, followed by 22300 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22300-22600 levels.
Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights & Market Outlook
The latest options data suggests retail traders are leaning bullish, while FIIs remain cautious with mixed positioning.
Retail Activity in Options Market
Retail traders showed bullish intent, with aggressive call additions and minimal put buying.
Call Options:
- Added 384K contracts, indicating strong upside bets.
- Shorted 272K contracts, reinforcing expectations of limited upside resistance.
Put Options:
- Added only 32K contracts, suggesting low demand for downside protection.
- Covered 31K contracts, further signaling reduced bearish conviction.
Retail Takeaway:
Retail traders are positioning for continued upside, with strong call additions and reduced put exposure.
FII Activity in Options Market
FIIs remained cautious, with a slight bearish tilt due to higher call shorting.
Call Options:
- Added 47K contracts, showing some bullish positioning.
- Shorted 79K contracts, indicating expectations of resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 35K contracts, hedging against a possible decline.
- Shorted 55K contracts, reducing their bearish exposure.
FII Takeaway:
FIIs are not aggressively betting on the upside, but their put shorting suggests a neutral-to-slightly-bullish outlook.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 1627 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 1510 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22094-22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Trade Like a Shark” focuses on the mindset required for successful trading. It stresses the importance of being aggressive and opportunistic in the markets, akin to how a shark operates.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 22462. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22486, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Expiry Range
Upper End of Expiry : 22631
Lower End of Expiry : 22308
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 22500 Tgt 22529, 22575 and 22610 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 22444 Tgt 22412, 22366 and 22323 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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