FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures with Fresh Shorts
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a bearish stance in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively shorting 1,281 contracts worth ₹216 crore. This resulted in a net open interest decrease of 349 contracts, signaling short positioning despite some unwinding of existing positions.
Breaking Down FII Activity
✔ FIIs covered 437 long contracts, showing minimal bullish interest.
✔ FIIs added 2,284 short contracts, reinforcing their bearish outlook.
✔ FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.22 → Confirms heavy short bias, with FIIs maintaining an aggressive bearish stance.
Client Behavior
✔ Clients added 8,220 long contracts, showing confidence in a potential rebound.
✔ Clients added 12,776 short contracts, indicating hedging against downside risk.
✔ Clients Long-to-Short Ratio: 2.19 → Clients remain bullish overall, but the rise in short positions suggests caution.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
FIIs: 18% Long / 82% Short → Extremely bearish positioning, actively adding fresh shorts.
Clients: 71% Long / 29% Short → Strongly bullish positioning, betting on upside continuation.
Balancing Aggression & Defense in Trading: How to Protect Profits While Maximizing Gains
Nifty continued its rally, forming a higher high, but failed to close above 22,600, ending the session with a Doji near the 1×3 Gann Angle resistance zone, signaling indecision and potential reversal or consolidation.
Key Astro & Technical Insights
✔ Bayer Rule 27 in Effect Today:
“Big tops and major bottoms occur when Mercury’s speed in Geocentric longitude is 59 minutes or 1 degree 58 minutes.”
✔ Price Action: Doji formation near key resistance suggests a potential pause or reversal.
✔ Gann Confluence: Price reacting at 1×3 Gann Angle resistance increases the importance of this level.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Case: Above 22,450, price can extend towards 22,885.
Bearish Case: Below 22,424, bears will gain control, leading to a possible correction.
As discussed in the weekly video, we anticipated a top formation today, and after market close, news surfaced that IndusInd Bank found accounting discrepancies in its derivatives portfolio. This negative development, combined with technical breakdown and astro factors, suggests high volatility in the next two sessions.
Key Technical & Astro Factors
✔ Outside Bar after DOJI
✔ Venus Conjunct Mercury Aspect: Historically known for triggering volatility in financial markets.
✔ Bayer Rule 15 in Effect:
“Venus Heliocentric Latitude at Extreme and Least Speeds often leads to major moves.”
This rule suggests a high-probability trend acceleration in the next two trading sessions.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Defense Zone:22400-22365 → Bulls must hold this range to prevent further downside.
Bearish Breakdown Below 22350: Could trigger a sharp decline towards 22250/22108
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22544 for a move towards 22618/22693/22767. Bears will get active below 22469 for a move towards 22395/22320. — Closed below 22469 waiting for 22395/22320
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:16,11:01,12:41,01:41,02:45 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty March Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.76 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 3 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the decrease in Cost of Carry implies that there was closeure of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 13:37 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @22724 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :22336 closed above it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 22693 Trend has changed to Buy on Dips till above 22336
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22500 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.88.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22500 strike, followed by 22600 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22400 strike, followed by 22300 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22300-22600 levels.
Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights & Market Outlook
The latest options data shows a mixed stance, with retail traders positioning cautiously, while FIIs are slightly leaning bullish.
Retail Activity in Options Market
Retail traders showed more call activity than puts, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish bias with expectations of range-bound movement.
Call Options:
- Added 525K contracts, indicating bullish bets on the upside.
- Shorted 427K contracts, showing expectations of resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 17K contracts, suggesting limited downside protection buying.
- Shorted 65K contracts, showing confidence that major support levels will hold.
Retail Takeaway:
Retail traders are not aggressively hedging for downside, but their heavy call activity suggests expectations of a volatile move.
FII Activity in Options Market
FIIs showed a mildly bullish stance, adding more calls than puts.
Call Options:
- Added 93K contracts, signaling some bullish intent.
- Shorted 81K contracts, reinforcing expectations of resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 45K contracts, hedging against possible downside.
- Shorted 28K contracts, slightly reducing bearish exposure.
FII Takeaway:
FIIs are not heavily positioned in either direction, but their call activity suggests a mild bullish bias.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 485 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 263 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22094-22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Don’t be afraid to ask for help. If you’re struggling with trading, don’t be afraid to ask for help from a more experienced trader. There are many resources available to help you improve your trading skills.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 22456 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22605, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 22444 Tgt 22484, 22512 and 22555 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 22363 Tgt 22323, 22274 and 22222 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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Always good analysis…