FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to maintain a bearish outlook in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively shorting 2,244 contracts worth ₹393 crore. This activity led to an increase of 1,296 contracts in net open interest, indicating fresh short positions being built rather than just rolling over existing positions.
Breaking Down FII Activity
- FIIs added 57 long contracts, showing minimal bullish interest.
- FIIs added 11,019 short contracts, reinforcing their bearish stance.
Client Behavior
- Clients added 11,691 long contracts, signaling confidence in an uptrend.
- Clients added 10,411 short contracts, hedging against potential downside risks.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs: Holding 14% long and 86% short positions → maintaining a strong bearish stance.
- Clients: Holding 71% long and 29% short positions → reflecting a more optimistic market outlook.
Market Outlook & Key Takeaways
✔ FIIs continue adding short positions aggressively, signaling a lack of confidence in an immediate upside move.
✔ Clients, on the other hand, are building long positions, suggesting they are positioning for a potential bounce.
✔ A sharp short-covering rally could be triggered if the market holds key support levels and FIIs start unwinding their shorts.
✔ If key support breaks, the FII short dominance could push markets further downward.
Nifty has broken its Gann angle resistance zone and is now approaching a critical support zone, aligning with the Budget Day low, 20-SMA, and Octave points in the 23,300–23,318 range.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Support Zone: 23,300–23,318 → A break below this zone could lead to a decline towards 23,169/23,042.
Resistance Zone: Bulls need to defend 23,300 and close above 23,424 for any meaningful upside move.
Astro Cycles Indicating Potential Trend Reversal
Tomorrow, we have two important astro dates, which could act as a catalyst for a trend shift.
Bullish Case: If Nifty holds 23,300 and reclaims 23,424, we could see a recovery.
Bearish Case: A break below 23,300 could intensify selling pressure, leading to a deeper correction.
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
- Volatility expected due to astro cycle confluence.
- Watch 23,300 carefully—it’s a make-or-break level for bulls.
- Stay cautious with overnight positions and trade intraday setups before confirming trend direction.
Final Thoughts: The market is at a crucial juncture, and tomorrow’s astro dates could bring a decisive move. Trade wisely and manage risk!
Nifty reacted sharply to Mars Declination, leading to a significant decline, reinforcing the theme that 2024 is the Year of Mars, where any major Mars astro event triggers big market moves.
Now, price is nearing its Gann angle support zone and the psychological level of 23,000, making this a critical area to watch for potential reversal signs.
Key Levels to Watch
Support Zone: 23,000 (Psychological Level) & Gann Angle Support
Resistance Zone: 23,200–23,222 → A strong supply zone for any rebound attempt.
Important Lunar Events Tomorrow – Reversal on the Cards?
- Tomorrow, we have two key lunar events, as discussed in the video below, which could influence market sentiment.
- Reversal Signal: If Nifty trades above the first 15-minute high, it could indicate a potential trend change.
Mid & Small Caps Hit Hard – Panic Selling Seen
- Today’s fall was more painful in mid & small-cap stocks, with many seeing panic-driven selling.
- This could be a short-term shakeout, but traders should watch for stabilization signs before taking fresh positions.
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
✔ If 23,000 holds, a reversal could play out, especially with lunar events aligning.
✔ A move above 23,200–23,222 could confirm bullish momentum.
✔ If Nifty remains weak below 23,000, more downside pressure could build.
Final Thoughts: The market remains highly volatile, with astro cycles and technical levels aligning for a potential turning point. Watch the first 15-minute price action closely!
Watch the video below for in-depth analysis:
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23084 for a move towards 23160/23237/23313. Bears will get active below 23007 for a move towards 22931/22854/22778.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:15,11:45,12:15,02:00 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.72 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 1.3 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 04:46 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23529 closed below it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 23298 Trend has changed to Sell on Rise till below 23300
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.85.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22900 strike, followed by 22800 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23100 strike, followed by 23300 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22800-23200 levels.
Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights & Market Outlook
Analyzing retail and FII positioning in the options market provides valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price action. Here’s a breakdown of today’s data:
Retail Activity in Options Market
Retail traders showed a mildly bullish stance, with aggressive call activity and balanced put positioning:
Call Options:
- Added 537K contracts, indicating bullish bets.
- Shorted 453K contracts, expecting resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 65K contracts, hedging against downside risks.
- Shorted 75K contracts, suggesting confidence that support levels will hold.
Retail Takeaway:
Retail traders favor the upside, with heavy call buying and put shorting, signaling expectations of limited downside.
FII Activity in Options Market
FIIs displayed a neutral to slightly bearish bias, with balanced call and put positioning:
Call Options:
- Added 51.2K contracts, indicating fresh long positions.
- Shorted 49.3K contracts, reinforcing resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 48.8K contracts, hedging against downside risks.
- Shorted 30.8K contracts, reducing their bearish stance.
FII Takeaway:
FIIs are not aggressively bullish, as they are equally adding and shorting call options, indicating they expect range-bound price action with resistance at higher levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 4486 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 4001 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” – Mark Douglas
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23575 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 23466 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23110 Tgt 23149, 23199 and 23250 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 23025 Tgt 22975, 22920 and 22848 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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