FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to maintain a bearish outlook in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively shorting 6,734 contracts worth ₹1,186 crore. This activity led to an increase of 3,588 contracts in net open interest, indicating fresh short positions being built.
Breaking Down FII Activity
- FIIs covered 1,539 long contracts, reducing their bullish exposure.
- FIIs added 9,479 short contracts, reinforcing their bearish stance.
Client Behavior
- Clients added 9,926 long contracts, signaling confidence in a potential uptrend.
- Clients added 3,539 short contracts, hedging against downside risks.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs: Holding 15% long and 85% short positions, maintaining a strong bearish stance.
- Clients: Holding 72% long and 28% short positions, reflecting a more optimistic market outlook.
Market Outlook & Key Takeaways
✔ FIIs remain aggressively short, suggesting skepticism about market strength.
✔ Clients, however, are adding long positions, indicating confidence in a rebound.
✔ If the market holds key support levels, FIIs could be forced into short-covering, triggering a sharp upside move.
✔ A break below critical support could accelerate the downside, validating FII’s bearish positioning.
Final Thoughts: With FIIs betting on further downside and clients expecting an uptrend, the market is at a critical inflection point. Traders should watch key resistance and support zones to confirm the next directional move.
Nifty once again faced resistance at the critical 23,779–23,822 zone, with today’s high at 23,773, before witnessing a small dip ahead of the crucial RBI policy announcement.
Adding to the significance, today marks 90 days from the September 26, 2024 top, creating a strong confluence of price and time cycles just as an important macro event unfolds. This alignment suggests that a major move could be on the horizon.
Bayer Rules Indicating a Key Turning Point
Bayer Rule No. 38 – Mercury Latitude Heliocentric
- Some of the most powerful tops and bottoms are formed when Mercury passes key heliocentric degrees.
Bayer Rule No. 14 – Venus Movements in Geocentric Longitude
- The impact of Venus at a specific geocentric degree can act as a catalyst for market reversals or breakouts.
Market Outlook: Prepare for Volatility
- Key Supply Zone: 23,779–23,822 → Bulls need a strong breakout above this level for further upside.
- Support Levels to Watch: A break below key support of 23521 could invite aggressive selling pressure.
- With the RBI policy announcement today, expect sharp intraday swings as markets react to policy cues.
Nifty has broken its Gann angle resistance zone and is now approaching a critical support zone, aligning with the Budget Day low, 20-SMA, and Octave points in the 23,300–23,318 range.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Support Zone: 23,300–23,318 → A break below this zone could lead to a decline towards 23,169/23,042.
Resistance Zone: Bulls need to defend 23,300 and close above 23,424 for any meaningful upside move.
Astro Cycles Indicating Potential Trend Reversal
Tomorrow, we have two important astro dates, which could act as a catalyst for a trend shift.
Bullish Case: If Nifty holds 23,300 and reclaims 23,424, we could see a recovery.
Bearish Case: A break below 23,300 could intensify selling pressure, leading to a deeper correction.
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
- Volatility expected due to astro cycle confluence.
- Watch 23,300 carefully—it’s a make-or-break level for bulls.
- Stay cautious with overnight positions and trade intraday setups before confirming trend direction.
Final Thoughts: The market is at a crucial juncture, and tomorrow’s astro dates could bring a decisive move. Trade wisely and manage risk!
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23386 for a move towards 23463/23540. Bears will get active below 23300 for a move towards 23232/23155/23078
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:15,10:29,12:04,01:14,02:22 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.67 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 1.7 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 10:39 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23529 closed below it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 23298 Trend has changed to Sell on Rise till below 23500
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23300 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.85.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23500 strike, followed by 23600 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23300 strike, followed by 23200 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 23200-23500 levels.
Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights & Market Outlook
Analyzing retail and FII positioning in the options market helps traders gauge market sentiment and anticipate potential moves. Here’s a detailed breakdown of today’s activity:
Retail Activity in Options Market
Retail traders showed a neutral stance, with a balanced approach in both calls and puts:
Call Options:
- Added 485K contracts, indicating some bullish bets.
- Shorted 484K contracts, suggesting expectations of limited upside.
Put Options:
- Added 144K contracts, hedging against a possible downside move.
- Shorted 205K contracts, signaling confidence in key support levels holding.
Retail Takeaway:
Retail traders appear to be positioning for a range-bound market, with equal call buying and selling, alongside moderate put hedging.
FII Activity in Options Market
FIIs showed a cautious bullish bias, adding more call options while also maintaining some downside protection:
Call Options:
- Added 24.3K contracts, showing fresh bullish interest.
- Shorted 12.8K contracts, suggesting expectations of strong resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 45.2K contracts, hedging against potential downside risks.
- Shorted 22K contracts, reducing their bearish exposure.
FII Takeaway:
FIIs are tilting slightly bullish but are not fully committing to an upside breakout. Their put shorting indicates reduced bearish conviction, while call shorting suggests resistance at higher levels.
Market Outlook & Key Takeaways
✔ Retail traders remain neutral, expecting range-bound price action.
✔ FIIs are showing a cautious bullish bias, adding calls while also hedging downside risks.
✔ If a breakout occurs above key resistance, FIIs may start unwinding shorts, leading to a rally.
✔ On the downside, strong support levels must hold, or put buyers could gain control.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 2463 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 1515 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
“I do not believe in gambling or reckless speculation, but am firmly convinced, after years of experience, that if traders will follow rules and trade on definite indications, that speculation can be made a profitable profession” W D Gann
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23575 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 23466 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23350 Tgt 23385, 23424 and 23484 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 23300 Tgt 23275, 23230 and 23178 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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