FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Bank Nifty Index Futures
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a Bearish stance in the Bank Nifty Index Futures market, actively Shorting 2231 contracts worth ₹335 crores. This activity resulted in a net increase of 1905 contracts in open interest, indicating fresh short positions being built.
Bank Nifty continues to hold above the critical 50,272–50,323 range, signaling bullish strength. However, today’s session formed an Outside Bar pattern, a potential reversal setup, which will be confirmed if price breaks below 50,190.
Adding to the significance, Bank Nifty is facing resistance at 150% from the January 27 low, as discussed in the video below.
Confluence of Time & Price Cycles
Today marks 90 days from the September 26, 2024 top, aligning with key Gann time cycles just as a major macro event unfolds. This price-time confluence suggests that a high-volatility move is likely in the coming sessions.
Bayer Rules Indicating a Key Turning Point
Bayer Rule No. 38 – Mercury Latitude Heliocentric
- Historically, powerful market tops and bottoms have been formed when Mercury passes key heliocentric degrees.
Bayer Rule No. 14 – Venus Movements in Geocentric Longitude
- Venus at specific geocentric degrees can act as a catalyst for major market reversals or breakouts.
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
Bullish Scenario: If 50,272–50,323 holds, we could see an attempt to clear resistance and move higher.
Bearish Scenario: A break below 50,190 will confirm the Outside Bar reversal, triggering downside towards key support levels.
With the RBI policy announcement, expect sharp intraday swings and trend-defining moves.
Bank Nifty failed to close below the Outside Bar low of 49,703, keeping the price action neutral for now. Bears need a break below 49,703 for a quick decline towards 49,500/49,285, while bulls need a close above 50,200 for an upside move to materialize.
Key Levels to Watch
Bearish Breakdown: Below 49,703, expect a drop towards 49,500/49,285.
Bullish Breakout: A sustained close above 50,200 can trigger an upmove.
Sideways Zone: Between 49,700–50,200, expect range-bound price action.
RBI’s OMO & Market Liquidity Impact
- The RBI increased OMO (Open Market Operations) value from ₹20K Cr to ₹40K Cr, potentially injecting liquidity into the system.
- However, despite the RBI rate cut and liquidity boost, Bank Nifty failed to close higher, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.
Astro Date Alert – Expect Volatility
Tomorrow marks an important astro date, adding to market uncertainty. Given this, traders should focus on intraday setups for the next two days before taking overnight positions from Thursday.
Final Thoughts: The market remains range-bound for now, with key breakout/down levels in focus. Expect increased volatility as we approach the astro date, and trade with caution!
Bank Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 49966 for a move towards 50191/50416/50641.Bears will get active below 49741 for a move towards 49516/49291/49066.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:15,10:29,12:04,01:14,02:22 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Bank Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 26.9 lakh, with addition of 0.66 lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a addiiton of SHORT positions today.
Bank Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 02:10 and Bank Nifty Rollover Cost is @51689 closed Below it.
Bank Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :49824 closed above it.
Bank Nifty closed above 20 SMA @49221 ,Trend is Buy on Dips till above 49700.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Bank Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Bank Nifty may follow a path of 51408-49965-48521-47159. This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Bank Nifty moves through these levels. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.– Price has closed above 49965
According to the Bank Nifty options chain, the call side has the highest open interest (OI) at the 50500 strike, followed by the 51000 strike. On the put side, the 50000 strike has the highest OI, followed by the 49500 strike.This indicates that market participants anticipate Bank Nifty to stay within the 49500-50500 range.
The Bank Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 50000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 1.05. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. PCR is on extreme end suggesting we can see sharp reversal .
“I do not believe in gambling or reckless speculation, but am firmly convinced, after years of experience, that if traders will follow rules and trade on definite indications, that speculation can be made a profitable profession” W D Gann
For Positional Traders, The Bank Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 50122. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 50012, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
BANK Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 50370 Tgt 50505, 50666 and 50811 ( BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 50225 Tgt 50108, 49958 and 49777 (BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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