Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a bearish outlook in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively shorting 1617 contracts worth ₹595 crores. This action resulted in a significant increase of 13675 contracts in the net open interest.
Breaking down their activity:
- FIIs added 7354 long contracts and simultaneously increased 6981 short contracts.
- While this shows an effort to expand both long and short exposures, the net FII long-short ratio remains at 0.19, signaling a predominantly bearish stance.
Client Behavior:
- Clients covered 7994 long contracts and covered 3304 short contracts, indicating a tilt towards covering both Long and short positions.
Current Positioning in Index Futures:
- FIIs: Holding 17 % long and 83 % short positions.
- Clients: Holding 72 % long and 28 % short positions.
This data highlights the contrasting approaches of FIIs and Clients, with FIIs maintaining a stronger bearish bias.
Nifty continued its downfall, breaking the Mercury Ingress low of 23,496 and closing below it on Friday. The market experienced a waterfall decline, bringing the price near its 1×3 Gann angle support zone.
An interesting observation is that in the last two days, FIIs have been buying in stock futures worth ₹6,115 crores, suggesting they are hedging index shorts by buying stock futures.
Astrological Events to Watch Tomorrow:
- Full Moon
- Bayer Rule 3:
“Price tends to rise when the angle between Mars and Mercury is 161 degrees 21 minutes 18 seconds; Mars must be retrograde.” - Mercury Extreme Declination
These events suggest increased volatility, making the first 15 minutes’ high and low critical. Additionally, tomorrow’s high and low will remain valid throughout the week, offering traders valuable guidance for short-term trades.
Key Levels to Watch:
- For a Short-Term Reversal: The price must move above 23,343.
Traders’ Note:
Stay cautious and closely monitor the first 15 minutes of trading to gauge the week’s potential trend. With heightened volatility expected, proper risk management is essential to navigate the market effectively.
Balancing Aggression and Defensiveness: The Trader’s Guide to Long-Term Success
Nifty witnessed a perfect bounce from the Gann angle, in alignment with the astro cycle discussed earlier. The confluence of Moon, Mercury, and Bayer’s Rule played a pivotal role in this recovery, leading to a bounce back in price and the formation of a perfect Doji, which often signals a pause in the current downtrend.
Key Levels to Watch:
- For Bulls: A close above 23,266 is crucial to confirm a potential reversal, with upside targets at 23,555/23,739.
- For Bears: A break below 23,108 could lead to further downside toward 23,000/22,800.
Interesting Observation:
In the last three days, FIIs have been buying in stock futures worth ₹10,073 crores, suggesting they may be hedging index shorts by buying stock futures.
Traders’ Note:
The Doji formation indicates a make-or-break situation, so monitor these levels closely for confirmation of either a reversal or continuation of the downtrend. Proper risk management remains essential during this volatile phase.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23212 for a move towards 23289/23366 . Bears will get active below 23059 for a move towards 23982/23898/23800.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:37,11:37,12:57,01:36,02:48 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.37 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 1.1 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was covering of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 34:16 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23721 closed below it.
Nifty has closed below its 200 SMA @ 23945 Trend has changed to Sell on Rise till below 23343
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23100 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.60 .Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23300 strike, followed by 23500 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23000 strike, followed by 22800 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22800-23300 levels.
Retail Activity in Options Market
According to today’s data:
- Retail investors sold 39K Call Option contracts and shorted 181K Call Option contracts.
- They also bought 581K Put Option contracts and covered 551K Put Option contracts, indicating a bearish bias in the market.
FII Activity in Options Market
- Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) added 102K Call Option contracts and covered 40K Call Option contracts.
- On the Put side, FIIs added 47K Put Option contracts and shorted 5.7K Put Option contracts, suggesting a shift toward a Neutral to Bullish bias.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 8132 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 7901 crores.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Mental Toughness is my business. Make it part of yours. Keep a journal. Feed your mind.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23490. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 23251, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23222 Tgt 23264, 23299 and 23343 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 23166 Tgt 23133, 223100 and 22066 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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