Nifty Analysis: Downfall Continues with Key Levels and Astrological Events in Focus

By | January 13, 2025 11:25 pm

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a bearish outlook in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively shorting 21675 contracts worth ₹1681 crores. This action resulted in a significant increase of 15747 contracts in the net open interest.

Breaking down their activity:

  • FIIs added 1449 long contracts and simultaneously increased 18849 short contracts.
  • While this shows an effort to expand both long and short exposures, the net FII long-short ratio remains at 0.18, signaling a predominantly bearish stance.

Client Behavior:

  • Clients added 12613  long contracts and covered 2457 short contracts, indicating a tilt towards building Long positions.

Current Positioning in Index Futures:

  • FIIs: Holding 15 % long and 85 % short positions.
  • Clients: Holding 72 % long and 28 % short positions.

This data highlights the contrasting approaches of FIIs and Clients, with FIIs maintaining a stronger bearish bias.

As Discussed in Last Analysis

Nifty continued its downfall, breaking the Mercury Ingress low of 23,496 and closing below it. Adding to the pressure, the 2024 US Job Report surpassed expectations on hiring, raising uncertainty about the path of interest rates this year.

Additionally, with the North Node (Rahu) changing signs, a long-term trend change could be on the horizon. This astrological shift often signals significant market moves.

Key Levels to Watch for Monday:

  • Support Zone: If Nifty holds the range of 23,189-23,225 during the first 15 minutes after a potential gap-down opening, there is a possibility of a reversal.
  • For a Complete Reversal: The price must close above 23,500 to confirm a change in the trend.

Traders’ Note:
Monitor the first 15 minutes closely, as holding the support zone could set the stage for a recovery. If support breaks, further downside is possible. Stay cautious and manage positions carefully.

Mastering the Trading Brain: Breaking Free from Emotional Trading

Nifty continued its downfall, breaking the Mercury Ingress low of 23,496 and closing below it on Friday. The market experienced a waterfall decline, bringing the price near its 1×3 Gann angle support zone.

An interesting observation is that in the last two days, FIIs have been buying in stock futures worth ₹6,115 crores, suggesting they are hedging index shorts by buying stock futures.

Astrological Events to Watch Tomorrow:

  1. Full Moon
  2. Bayer Rule 3:
    “Price tends to rise when the angle between Mars and Mercury is 161 degrees 21 minutes 18 seconds; Mars must be retrograde.”
  3. Mercury Extreme Declination

These events suggest increased volatility, making the first 15 minutes’ high and low critical. Additionally, tomorrow’s high and low will remain valid throughout the week, offering traders valuable guidance for short-term trades.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • For a Short-Term Reversal: The price must move above 23,343.

Traders’ Note:

Stay cautious and closely monitor the first 15 minutes of trading to gauge the week’s potential trend. With heightened volatility expected, proper risk management is essential to navigate the market effectively.

 

 

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23212 for a move towards 23289/23366 . Bears will get active below 23059 for a move towards 23982/23898/23800.

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:42,12:41,01:55,02:52 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.38 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 3.2 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 04:46 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.

Nifty Gann Monthly  Trade level :23721 closed below it.

Nifty has closed below its 200 SMA @ 23945 Trend has changed to Sell on Rise till below 23343

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.60 .Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23300 strike, followed by 23500 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23000 strike, followed by 22800 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22800-23300 levels.

Retail Activity in Options Market: Bullish Bias Indicated

According to today’s data, retail investors bought 809 K Call Option contracts and shorted 637 K  Call Option contracts. Additionally, they bought 76 K  Put Option contracts and covered 76 K Put Option contracts, indicating a bullish bias in the market.

FII Activity in Options Market: Bearish Bias Indicated

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) covered 349 K Call Option contracts and shorted 272 K Call Option contracts. On the Put side, FIIs added 256 K Put Option contracts and shorted 87 K Put Option contracts, suggesting a shift towards a bearish bias.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 4892 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 8066 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.

Mental Toughness is my business. Make it part of yours. Keep a journal. Feed your mind.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23490. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 23251, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 23122 Tgt 23194, 23250 and 23300 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 23059 Tgt 23012, 22960 and 22920 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

► Join Youtube channel : Click here

Check out Gann Course Details: W.D. Gann Trading Strategies

Check out Financial Astrology Course Details: Trading Using Financial Astrology

Check out Gann Astro Indicators Details: Gann Astro Indicators

Leave a Reply