Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a bearish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by shorting 8,671 contracts worth ₹528 crores. This led to an increase of 18,547 contracts in the net open interest.
FIIs added 4,413 long contracts and 13,754 short contracts, indicating a preference for building positions in both long and short directions. With a net FII long-short ratio of 0.53, it is evident that FIIs utilized the market rise to enter long and short positions strategically in Nifty futures.
On the other hand, Clients added 5,428 long contracts and 6,622 short contracts, reflecting position additions in both directions as part of their trading strategy.
Current Positioning in Index Futures:
- FIIs: Holding 33% long and 67% short positions.
- Clients: Holding 65% long and 35% short positions.
Analysis:
This data highlights a cautious yet bearish stance by FIIs, as they continue to hold a majority of short positions. Meanwhile, clients maintain a relatively optimistic outlook with a higher percentage of long positions.
Traders should stay vigilant as market dynamics evolve, especially with FIIs using the market rise to adjust their exposure and take a bearish tilt.
The Earth at 67.46 degrees astrological event, combined with Gann’s weekly and monthly close levels, led to a rally in Nifty. The index closed the week with a Doji candlestick, signaling indecision, while the monthly close was above last month’s low of 24,073, making it a positive close overall.
The upcoming week will be very crucial, as markets will react to key economic data and events:
- GDP Numbers
- Auto Sales Data
- RBI Policy Announcement
These factors will make it an eventful and potentially volatile week for traders.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Bulls need a close above the 24,201-24,270 range, which is a confluence of Gann Monthly TC and SAP levels, to extend the rally.
- Bears need a close below 24,900 to regain control.
- Sideways Mode: If the price remains between these ranges, consolidation is likely to continue.
Important Note for Traders:
Even if GDP figures disappoint, bad data should not be used to initiate shorts, as markets are forward-looking. For example, despite the negative Adani news, markets bottomed out and rallied soon after.
Traders should focus on price action around these levels and prepare for significant moves driven by the events in the coming week.
Master the Art of Money Management: Key Secrets Every Trader Must Know
Nifty made a low of 24,008, but as discussed earlier, bad GDP data should not be used as a trigger to short the market. Following this, we saw a strong rally, with the price closing at 24,276.
Seasonality Analysis:
As per historical seasonality data from the last 18 years:
- Nifty was up 12 times, with an average gain of 4%.
- Nifty was down 6 times, with an average loss of 1.8%.
The December month open is at 24,140, and as long as bulls are able to defend this level, the rally can extend toward 24,600/24,888 on the upside.
- For Bears: They will only gain control below the 24,000 level.
Astrological Insight – Bayer Rule 30:
Bayer Rule 30 states: “The trend changes when Venus in declination passes the extreme declination of the Sun.”
This rule will become active tomorrow, making it a critical day for traders.
Trading Strategy for Tomorrow:
- Watch the first 15 minutes’ high and low, as it will set the tone for the day.
- As discussed in the video below, swing trades should only be initiated after 4th December, as the market may consolidate before this date.
Stay cautious and trade with proper risk management, keeping these key levels and insights in mind.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24313 for a move towards 24391/24468/24545. Bears will get active below 24159 for a move towards 24081/24004/23927.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:50,11:01,12:52,01:38,02:13 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.13 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 4.2 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 33:17 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @25178 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :24201 close above it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 23988 Trend is Buy on Dips till holding 24000.
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24100 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.88Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24300 strike, followed by 24400 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24200 strike, followed by 24100 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24100-24500 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 238 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 3588 crores.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23218-23889-24600 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
If you want to be a successful trader going through a loss making period You need to learn the art of losing.. If you condition your mind to lose without anxiety without emotional attachment and without desire to get even.. Things will start turning around for you..
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24271. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24332, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 24312 Tgt 24343, 24385 and 24444 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 24235 Tgt 24195, 24155 and 24108 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.