Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Bullish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by Buying 3937 contracts worth ₹238 crores. This resulted in a decrease of 4473 contracts in the net open interest.
FIIs covered 562 long contracts and 4054 short contracts, indicating a preference for reducing both their long and short positions. With a net FII long-short ratio of 0.58, it is evident that FIIs utilized the market rise to exit their long positions while also reducing their short exposure in Nifty futures.
On the other hand, Clients covered 5725 long contracts and 4166 short contracts, reflecting covering positioning in both directions as part of their trading strategy.
Current Positioning in Index Futures:
- FIIs: Holding 33% long and 67% short positions.
- Clients: Holding 65% long and 35% short positions.
This data highlights a cautious yet bearish stance by FIIs, while clients maintain a relatively optimistic outlook with a higher percentage of long positions. Traders should remain vigilant as market dynamics evolve.
Nifty faced rejection for the third time from the 24,340 range, which also marked the last expiry’s close. Once the Mercury Retrograde low of 24,125 was breached, the index saw a waterfall decline, filling the election gap in the process.
One of the key reasons for this decline was the FII positioning. FIIs, holding significant short positions, aimed to exit at the lowest levels possible. To achieve this, they used heavyweights like Reliance and HDFC Bank, selling in the cash market to bring down the index and cover their shorts at favorable levels.
The price touched the Octave Point of 24,900, as discussed in the video below. If the 24,880-24,900 range is held today, bulls will likely aim for a weekly and monthly close in the range of 24,025-24,050.
Additionally, tomorrow marks Earth at 67.46 degrees, an astrological event that has historically led to a positive bias in the market.
Key Takeaways for Traders:
- Monitor the 24,880-24,900 range for support.
- Bulls need to defend this range to achieve a strong weekly and monthly close.
- Watch for positive momentum driven by historical astro patterns.
Traders should closely observe these critical levels as we approach the final trading sessions of the week.
How to Predict Stock Movements Using Gann’s Price-Time Squaring Technique
The Earth at 67.46 degrees astrological event, combined with Gann’s weekly and monthly close levels, led to a rally in Nifty. The index closed the week with a Doji candlestick, signaling indecision, while the monthly close was above last month’s low of 24,073, making it a positive close overall.
The upcoming week will be very crucial, as markets will react to key economic data and events:
- GDP Numbers
- Auto Sales Data
- RBI Policy Announcement
These factors will make it an eventful and potentially volatile week for traders.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Bulls need a close above the 24,201-24,270 range, which is a confluence of Gann Monthly TC and SAP levels, to extend the rally.
- Bears need a close below 24,900 to regain control.
- Sideways Mode: If the price remains between these ranges, consolidation is likely to continue.
Important Note for Traders:
Even if GDP figures disappoint, bad data should not be used to initiate shorts, as markets are forward-looking. For example, despite the negative Adani news, markets bottomed out and rallied soon after.
Traders should focus on price action around these levels and prepare for significant moves driven by the events in the coming week.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24182 for a move towards 24259/24336/24414. Bears will get active below 24105 for a move towards 24027/23950/23873.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:06,11:01,12:56,01:45,02:25 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.13 lakh cr , witnessing a liquidation of 4.1 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was covering of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 44:06 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @25178 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :24201 close above it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 23988 Trend is Buy on Dips till holding 24000.
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24100 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.88Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24200 strike, followed by 24400 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24000 strike, followed by 23800 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24000-243200 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 4383 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 5723 crores.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23218-23889-24600 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
If you want to be a successful trader going through a loss making period You need to learn the art of losing.. If you condition your mind to lose without anxiety without emotional attachment and without desire to get even.. Things will start turning around for you..
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24241. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24251, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 24199 Tgt 24237, 24266 and 24312 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 24150 Tgt 24106, 24060 and 24012 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.