Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a bearish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by shorting 31,674 contracts worth ₹1,919 crores. This resulted in a decrease of 1,05,369 contracts in the net open interest.
FIIs covered 44,099 long contracts and 61,517 short contracts, indicating a preference for reducing both their long and short positions. With a net FII long-short ratio of 0.45, it is evident that FIIs utilized the market decline to exit their long positions while also reducing their short exposure in Nifty futures.
On the other hand, Clients added 30,047 long contracts and 23,232 short contracts, reflecting some positioning in both directions as part of their trading strategy.
Current Positioning in Index Futures:
- FIIs: Holding 33% long and 67% short positions.
- Clients: Holding 64% long and 36% short positions.
This data highlights a cautious yet bearish stance by FIIs, while clients maintain a relatively optimistic outlook with a higher percentage of long positions. Traders should remain vigilant as market dynamics evolve.
Nifty was rejected for the fourth time from the SAP and Gann Annual TC confluence level of 52,348-52,434. The high made at the open was 52,555, but the price saw a quick decline. Despite this, Bank Nifty managed to hold and close above the previous day’s low, showing some resilience.
Tomorrow marks the Monthly Expiry, and the last expiry was at 24340, while today’s close is at 24274. This indicates that the price has only moved 75 points since the last expiry. As the price is closing above 24340, the bears have a slight edge heading into tomorrow.
With Mercury Retrograde and price has also formed Inside Bar pattern, traders should carefully watch these levels:
- Long Positions: Above 24,343, targeting a move of 150-212 points upward.
- Short Positions: Below 24,125, which could trigger a decline of 150-212 points downward.
Caution is advised, and traders should closely monitor these levels during tomorrow’s session to make informed decisions.
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Nifty faced rejection for the third time from the 24,340 range, which also marked the last expiry’s close. Once the Mercury Retrograde low of 24,125 was breached, the index saw a waterfall decline, filling the election gap in the process.
One of the key reasons for this decline was the FII positioning. FIIs, holding significant short positions, aimed to exit at the lowest levels possible. To achieve this, they used heavyweights like Reliance and HDFC Bank, selling in the cash market to bring down the index and cover their shorts at favorable levels.
The price touched the Octave Point of 24,900, as discussed in the video below. If the 24,880-24,900 range is held today, bulls will likely aim for a weekly and monthly close in the range of 24,025-24,050.
Additionally, tomorrow marks Earth at 67.46 degrees, an astrological event that has historically led to a positive bias in the market.
Key Takeaways for Traders:
- Monitor the 24,880-24,900 range for support.
- Bulls need to defend this range to achieve a strong weekly and monthly close.
- Watch for positive momentum driven by historical astro patterns.
Traders should closely observe these critical levels as we approach the final trading sessions of the week.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24290 for a move towards 24368/24446/24523. Bears will get active below 24117 for a move towards 24039/23961/23883.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:46,11:49,01:10,02:07 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.17 lakh cr , witnessing a addition of 47.7 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was covering of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 04:46 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @25178 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :24201 close above it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 24005 Trend is Buy on Dips once above 24000.
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.88Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24000 strike, followed by 24200 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23900 strike, followed by 23800 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 23800-24200 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 11756 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 8718 crores.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
If your last trade has been a winning trade you have greater confidence on the set up, might increase your size – remember what a series of winner you increase your trade size more than previous trade and take a big loss
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24230. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24276, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23980 Tgt 24040, 24088 and 24150 ( BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 23900 Tgt 23866, 23816 and 23777 (BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.