As Discussed in Last AnalysisIf Next 2 days we close below 36239 than the logical target foe this downmove are 35704 where 200 DMA lies. Fresh short should be taken below 35704 for a move towards 35533/35344/35157. Bulls will get active above 36100 for a move towards 36291/36481. We have Mercury Square Jupiter HELIO Aspect forming on Monday it generally leads to top or bottom formation so watch out for first 15 mins its will guide you for next week move. Have we made bottom as discussed in below video its will be confirmed when we have a close above 36117 in next 2 trading session. Bulls need to move above 36117 for a move towards 36350/36481/36673. Bears need a close below 35830 for a move back to 35666/35420/35220.
Talking about supports and resistance based on OI at this stage is not quite relevant because, with the kind of mayhem going on, no strike is safe. All this happening with VIX below 22, and with no strike having 20L+ OI is what is making this interesting.
Bank Nifty Nov Future Open Interest Volume is at 25.1 lakh with liquidation of 2.5 Lakh contract , with decrease in Cost of Carry suggesting SHORT positions were covered today.
MAX Pain is at 36500 and PCR is in the neutral zone of 1
After big down move Volatility has to come down and this can be interpreted by Options writing by FII as today they have sold Options worth 3999 cr so Options writers on High OI Strike in Puts side. Last month low was 36876 Bulls would like to close around this level to aviod forming lower low on Monthly Chart.
Considering the bearish atmosphere surrounding and 57 point price fall, it is reasonable to assume that shorts are built into the system. The low PCR also suggests the same. As marked in yesterday observation also, FII have been short from a much higher level – around 37500 and we have important astro date today as discuused and we have defended the 200 DMA. Considering these, I do not consider new shorts rewarding enough. Probably a panic bottom has set in a decent rally might be the way which causes maximum pain to maximum participants. Let us look forward.
For Positional Traders Trend Change Level is 36732 on Futures and go long and short above/below it That will help you stay on the side of Institutions and which has a greater risk-reward ratio. For Intraday Traders 36192 will act as a Intraday Trend Change Level.