FII bought 24.9 K contract of Index Future worth 2152 cores, Net OI has increased by 8.9 K contract 16.9 K Long contract were added by FII and 8 K Shorts were covered by FII. Net FII Long Short ratio at 1.91 so FII used RISE to ENTER longs and EXIT shorts.
As Discussed in Last AnalysisIf Next 2 days we close below 17100 than the logical target foe this downmove are 16564/16075 where 200 DMA lies. Fresh short should be taken below 16900 for a move towards 16771/16641. BUlls will get active above 17100 for a move towards 17161/17293. We have Mercury Square Jupiter HELIO Aspect forming on Monday it generally leads to top or bottom formation so watch out for first 15 mins its will guide you for next week move. Above 17100 we did 17161 High for the day and below 16900 we did 16782. Have we made bottom as discussed in below video its will be confirmed when we have a close above 17171 in next 2 trading session as we have formed doji at gann angle. Bulls need to move above 17173 for a move towards 17238/17304/17370. Bears need a close below 16977 for a move back to 16912/16847/16782.
MAX Pain is at 17300 PCR at 0.91.Nifty Rollover cost @ 17538 and Rollover is at 81.8 % Highest in last 6 months.
Nifty Dec Future Open Interest Volume is at 1.09 Cores with addition of 0.88 Lakh with decrease in cost of carry suggesting SHORT positions were closed today.
There is total OI of 6.8 Cores on the Call side and 4.1 Cores on the Put side, So, the activity is more on the CALL side, indicating option writers are in BEARISH zone.
The option table is undergoing a real transformation – with each day one CE level is targeted with huge volumes of writing and the strike is giving way to much lower strikes.
Considering the bearish atmosphere surrounding and 42 point price rise , it is reasonable to assume that shorts are built into the system. The low PCR also suggests the same. As marked in yesterday observation also, FII have been short from a much higher level – around 17600 and we have important astro date today . Considering these, I do not consider new shorts rewarding enough. Probably a panic bottom has set in a decent rally might be the way which causes maximum pain to maximum participants. Let us look forward as we have monthly closing tommrow.
FII’s sold 3332 cores and DII’s bought 4611 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 75.29
Retailers have bought 56.9 K CE contracts and 127 K CE contracts were shorted by them on Put Side Retailers bought 448 K PE contracts and 350 K PE contracts were shorted by them suggesting having BEARISH outlook,On Flip Side FII sold 10.3 K CE contracts and 19.3 K shorted CE were covered by them, On Put side FII’s sold 11.3 K PE and 43.2 K PE were shorted by them suggesting they have a turned to BULLISH Bias.
After big down move Volatility has to come down and this can be interpreted by Options writing by FII as today they have sold Options worth 3999 cr so Options writers on High OI Strike in Puts side.
For Positional Traders Stay long till we are holding Trend Change Level 17271 and stay short below it. That will help you stay on the side of Institutions and which has a greater risk-reward ratio. For Intraday Traders 17074 will act as a Intraday Trend Change Level.