FII Derivative Analysis for Nifty Future trade on 2 Jan 2013

By | January 2, 2013 8:09 am


1. FIIs sold 4532 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 144.14 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 3958 contracts. Must read Trader’s Resolutions for the New Year-2013

2. As CNX Nifty Future was up by 55 points with Open Interest in Index Futures decreasing by 3958, so FIIs have booked profit in longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.FII has not initiated fresh longs even though Nifty was up by 55 points.

3. NS closed at 20 month high 5950 after making high of 5963 and low of 5937.Nifty was unable to break 5965 as discussed before will be a tough resistance to cross also Nifty is near the higher end of trading range so if 5965 is not broken on closing basis in next 2 days we can see a pullback near the lower end of trading range which is 5823.

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5965and 5980 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5937 and 5920.Trend is Buy on Dips till 5920 is not broken on closing basis.US has averted the fiscal cliff and it should be booster to Indian Market.We started the New year with Bang and Tuesday effect playing off. I will discuss the Tuesday effect in more details later.

5. Nifty Future January Open Interest Volume is at 1.70 cores with addition of 6.3 lakh in Open Interest, Cost fof Carry of Nifty Future at 11.Premium in NF is at 57 which is very high and it shows excessive bullishness in market participants. Whenever traders gets confidence about a move market always have a habit to surprise





6. Total Future & Option trading volume at 0.74 lakh Cores with total contract traded  at 1.18 lakh, PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 1.02 and VIX at 13.69. VIX fell by almost 8% because we got clarity on fiscal cliff uncetanity.

7. 6000 Call Option is having highest Open Interest of 59.4 lakhs with addition of 4.3 lakhs in Open Interest, 5900 Nifty CE also saw liquidation of 1.1 lakhs in OI,6100 Call Option added 1.15 lakhs in OI with premium at Rs 48 .5500-6100 Call Options added 4.14 lakhs in OI. We had a bullish day but the Option data Do not suggest excessive bullishness so caution on highs is warranted.

8. 5800 Put Option is having Open Interest of 54 lakhs with addition of 2.8 lakhs in OI so firm base is set up at 5800 and 5900 Put Option added 6.8 lakhs with OI at 46 Lakhs .5500-6100 Put Options added 3.26 lakhs in OI. Range as per Rollover comes at 5990-5992 NF has broken this range today on Upside.

9. FIIs buying in Equity in tune of 665.05 cores and DII sold 406 cores in cash segment,INR closed at 54.95 Live INR rate @

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 6018(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5961 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand). Bank Nifty Future Trend Changer Level 12609.

Buy above 5965 Tgt 5980,6000 and 6020

Sell below 5937Tgt 5920,5900,5870(Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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