FII Derivative Data Analysis for 16 August Trade in Nifty Future

By | August 15, 2012 7:19 pm

                                                        Wishing All a Very Happy Independence day…

Market rallied on 14 August wholesale price index (WPI) number, which shows a fall from 7.25 percent to 6.87 percent.Market rejoiced the number as it rekindled the hope of rate cut by RBI,but the devil lies in detail of the number July’s WPI inflation is down because of base effect in last July as index had soared to 9.36 %.

Manufacturing prices – which is what the Reserve Bank considers “core inflation” – are beginning to rise again, in the WPI have risen to 5.58 percent in July, up from 5 percent in May and June.

1. FII  bought 10832  Contracts of NF ,worth 289.48 cores  with net OI increasing by 7560 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future was up by 34 points and OI has increased by 7560 , FII have initiated fresh longs in Index futures.

3. NS closed at 5380 after making a high of 5387 ,as said in Weekly analysis 5386 will be an important level as its 100 WSMA .As discussed earlier the range of 5350-80 is supply zone,cannot be broken in single attempt. Bulls finally after 5 days were able to close Nifty above 5350. Every small dip is getting bought into.

4.   Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5386 and 5400 (as  its swing high in Oct 2011) which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5340 and 5307 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5230 is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty August OI is at 2.59 cores with an addition  of 6.7  Lakh in OI, longs were added by Retailers and HNI.So mass pscology is turning towards rise till 5450 and traders are becoming confident over it looking at OI addition. Will Market oblige?

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.08 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 2.2  lakh.

7.  5300 CE also saw an unwinding of 4  lakhs with total OI now standing at 37 lakhs ,5400 CE saw an  unwinding of 7  lakhs and total OI stands at 62 lakhs making immediate ceiling for market,  5500 CE still having  highest OI of 89 lakhs,  , 4900-5500 CE saw an unwinding of 13 lakhs in OI suggesting weak bears have unwounded the position as Nifty is able to close above 5350.

8. On Put side 5000 PE saw an additon  of 1 lakhs,immediate support of Nifty as total OI at 1.05 core.5000-5500 PE added total of 12 lakhs in OI.5300 PE added 10 lakh in OI which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in near term.

9.FII  bought 258 cores and DII bough 75  cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.45  Live INR rate @ has sold 427 cores  in stock futures.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5392, Trend Changer at 5282 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 5388 Tgt 5400,5423 and 5450

Sell below 5365 Tgt 5344,5330 and 5307 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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