FII Derivative Data Analysis for Nifty Future May 2012 Expiry

By | May 30, 2012 8:25 pm

1. FII  sold 8832  Contracts of NF worth 254 cores OI also increased by 40572.

2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 48 points and OI has increased  by 40572 , ie Fall in Price with Rise in Open Interest,Fresh shorts were added by FII.

3. Nifty today closed below 4955 ie. 20 SMA which is technically bearish,Till it trades above 4920 bulls have upper hand. As Expiry is nearing and we have these grinding moves so that premium of calls and puts gets eaten away by Option Writers. 4900 PE which was trading at 17 in morning closed at Rs 12 even though NF made a low of 4945 so time value is eaten by writers.

4. From the start of May Series view was Sell in may and go away,which worked pretty well as  we made a low of 4788 in May series and bounced back till 5020 and started the next leg of down move.  Bulls are in pain for the series let me explain to you,

Nifty high =5279

Nifty Low = 4788

Range for the Series 491 points

Mean for the Series =5033 and High we made was 5020.

So Bulls are in pain and Logically bears will want to cover there shorts at lower end so i expect expiry below 4900.


5. Nifty  May  OI has decreased by 16  Lakhs .Total OI stands at 1.46 cores.Rollovers have started for June and till date 59 lakhs rollover have happened with NF range from 4825-5013.June series also added fresh 5 lakhs in OI and looks shorts got rollovered.

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.48 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 2.6 lakh.So a grinding and range bound day before expiry.

7.  5000 CE has seen an addition  of 6 lakhs total OI now stands at 63 lakhs,Highest in May series. 5000 CE writers are back with bang and wall of China now stands at 5000

8. On Put side 4700 PE is having highest OI of 80 lakhs making 4700 a strong base.4900 PE unwinded  3.4 lakhs,Today  We have GDP data on Friday with expectation at 6.1 % if it comes below it  and World markets are tumbling down we can see a bearish expiry. Nifty has been in grinding zone from past 2 trading sessions and an impulsive move shall commence either tommrow or day after. So keep your self prepared for a trending move.

9.FII  sold  10 cores and DII sold 182 cores in cash segment.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 4740, Trend Changer at 4889 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 4960 Tgt 4980,4996 and 5020

Sell below 4945 Tgt 4920,4885 and 4850 (Nifty Spot Levels)


Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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