FII Activity Suggests Bearish Bias Ahead of Key Policy Event – 05 June 2025
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained their bearish stance in the Nifty Index Futures market on 05 June 2025, continuing to show risk aversion amid looming macro triggers and policy uncertainty.
Key FII Data Highlights
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Contracts Shorted: 5,112
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Total Value: ₹958 crore
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Net Open Interest (OI) Change: +2,960 contracts
The increase in OI alongside shorting activity signals fresh bearish positions, indicating that FIIs are expecting further downside or heightened volatility.
Breaking Down FII Activity
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✔ FIIs covered: 620 long contracts
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✔ FIIs added: 3,433 short contracts
➡ Reflects continued pressure on the long side and aggressive buildup on shorts.
Client Behavior Snapshot
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✔ Clients added: 4,465 long contracts
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✔ Clients added: 4,431 short contracts
➡ Indicates a neutral to mildly bullish stance with hedged exposure.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
| Segment | Long % | Short % | Long-to-Short Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIIs | 17% | 83% | 0.19 (strongly bearish) |
| Clients | 61% | 39% | 1.56 (bullish bias) |
Interpretation & Outlook
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FIIs remain strongly short-biased, despite some mild short covering seen earlier this week.
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The sharp increase in OI suggests fresh shorts
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The divergence in sentiment between FIIs and retail/prop clients highlights a classic institutional caution vs. retail optimism setup.
With the RBI Monetary Policy announcement imminent, traders should remain nimble and reactive, as institutional moves may amplify once policy direction becomes clearer.
Trading Strategy Takeaway
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Expect heightened volatility post-policy, especially in Nifty and rate-sensitive sectors.
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Monitor key levels: 24,500 (support) and 24,762 (resistance).
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Use hedged option strategies or tight stop-losses for directional trades.
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Master Losses: Your Trading War Journal for Unbreakable Discipline
You can read the Previous Day Analysis by clicking on this link.
The RBI Monetary Policy is scheduled for 10:00 AM today, and the market is pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut. But history tells us that it’s not just the rate action — it’s the reaction that creates trading opportunities.
️ In the video below, we’ve discussed how Nifty has reacted to past RBI policies, and more importantly, how to profit from the 10:00 AM move, a time window known for explosive short-term action.
Astro Cycle Setting Up a Bigger Move
Regardless of today’s policy outcome, the real trend is likely to unfold starting Monday, as a cluster of astro events converge, setting the stage for a high-probability directional breakout.
Key Astro Events Lined Up:
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Venus Ingress into Taurus → Brings strength to financials, markets often gain traction.
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Mercury Square North Node → Often signals indecision before a sharp move.
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Mars YOD North Node → Rare setup indicating abrupt and forceful movement.
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Bayer Rule 14:
“Venus movements in geocentric longitude using a unit of 1°9’13” often signal key reversals.”
With Venus and Mars both involved, expect a trending setup rather than sideways chop.
Technical View for Weekly Close
For today, watch out for the weekly closing range between 24,669 – 24,680. A close in this zone will position the market perfectly for a sustained breakout next week.
Trading Strategy
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Watch the 10:15 AM candle for direction: It often sets the tone for the rest of the day.
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Avoid over-leveraging ahead of the event; volatility is expected.
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Monday onwards will be key — align trades with the breakout direction post-astro trigger.
Stay disciplined, trade light during uncertainty, and prepare for a directional week ahead.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24815 for a move towards 24893/24971/25050. Bears will get active below 24658 for a move towards 24580/24502
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:37,10:58,12:10,01:32,02:50 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.23 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 1 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was covering of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 32:18 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @24321 closed above it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Buy Level : 24822
Nifty Gann Monthly Buy Level : 24669
Nifty has closed Below its 20 SMA @ 24748 Trend is Sell on Rise till below 24750
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24750 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.74.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24800 strike, followed by 25000 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24500 strike, followed by 24400 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24500-24800 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 208 cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2382 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23037-23722-24408-25134 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Those who succeed big at anything all have the same attitude: You keep going until it happens or you die trying. Quitting is not an option.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24811. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24874 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Expiry Range
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 24750 Tgt 24785, 24836 and 24864 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 24714 Tgt 24666, 24612 and 24575 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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