FIIs Maintain Bullish Bias in Bank Nifty Futures – April 23, 2024
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to reflect a bullish stance in the Bank Nifty Index Futures segment, buying 776 contracts worth ₹128 crore. However, the move was accompanied by a net open interest (OI) decrease of 1,206 contracts, indicating possible short covering or profit booking alongside fresh long interest.
Key Data Highlights:
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Contracts Bought: 776
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Notional Value: ₹128 crore
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Net OI Change: -1,206 contracts
Interpretation:
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The decline in OI with net buying suggests that FIIs may have:
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Covered short positions, and
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Exited some existing longs, while still adding selectively to fresh longs.
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This indicates a bullish undertone, but with reduced conviction, possibly due to:
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Upcoming monthly expiry,
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Cautious positioning ahead of geo-political tensions, or
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Expected volatility spike due to key astro/technical triggers.
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April 24, 2025 Expiry: Predicting Range for Nifty, Bank Nifty, Fin Nifty, Midcap Nifty
As Discussed in Last Analysis
Bank Nifty has completed a 6-day rally, with today marking the 7th session. If the index opens higher, it would be the 4th consecutive gap-up — a potential sign of exhaustion, especially when aligned with broader global cues.
Key Risk Factors to Monitor
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Exhaustion Gap: Multiple gap-ups without healthy consolidation often lead to sharp pullbacks once momentum stalls.
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US-China Trade Developments:
A potential deal between the U.S. and China could trigger a rally in the Dollar Index (DXY), which tends to be negative for emerging markets like India. -
Earnings Season: So far, corporate results have been mixed to underwhelming, which could weigh on sentiment once the technical momentum fades.
Key Level to Watch: 55,400
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If Bank Nifty trades below 55,400, it could trigger profit booking and a short-term correction.
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Breakdown below this level may push the index toward support zones near 54,700–54,300.
Trading Strategy
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Tight Stop-Losses are essential at this stage.
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Avoid chasing gap-ups — focus on confirmation through price action.
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Consider partial profit-booking if holding long positions, and be ready for short setups if reversal signs emerge below key levels.
Bank Nifty faced resistance at the 2×1 Gann angle and formed an Outside Bar pattern on the daily chart — a strong technical signal that often precedes trend reversals or sharp pullbacks, especially after extended rallies.
April Expiry Recap
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February Expiry Close: 51,575
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April Expiry Close: 55,370
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Total Gain: 3,795 points
This marks one of the strongest monthly expiry performances in recent times, fueled by aggressive short covering, positive global cues, and strong astro + Gann confluences.
Technical Insight – Outside Bar Pattern
An Outside Bar occurs when the current day’s high and low exceed the previous day’s range, signaling increased volatility and potential trend shift. The pattern, especially after a steep rally, calls for caution:
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A close below the Outside Bar low can trigger short-term correction. -
Sustaining above today’s high would invalidate the reversal signal and point to continued bullishness.
Key Levels to Watch Going Forward
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Support Zone: 54,900 – 55,000
→ Breakdown below this could open the path toward 54,300 / 53,750 -
Resistance Zone: 55,600 – 55,750
→ A move above this range could signal further upside toward 56,300+
Conclusion
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April expiry delivered a massive upside, but signs of exhaustion are starting to appear.
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Traders should tighten stops and avoid aggressive longs until price confirms strength above resistance.
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The Outside Bar + Gann angle rejection makes it critical to watch Thursday opening levels and first 15-minute range.
Bank Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 55889 for a move towards 56363 Bears will get active below 55417 for a move towards 54948/54480
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:27,10:55,12:11,01:20,02:41 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Bank Nifty April Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 12.3 lakh, with liquidation of 3.8 lakh contracts. Additionally, the Increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a closuere of LONG positions today.
Bank Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 08:04 and Bank Nifty Rollover Cost is @52173 closed above it.
Bank Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :52348 closed above it.
Bank Nifty closed above 200 SMA @51000,Trend is Buy on Dips till above 54872
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Bank Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Bank Nifty may follow a path of 53707-55304-56734. This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Bank Nifty moves through these levels. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
According to the Bank Nifty options chain, the call side has the highest open interest (OI) at the 56000 strike, followed by the 56500 strike. On the put side, the 55500 strike has the highest OI, followed by the 55000 strike.This indicates that market participants anticipate Bank Nifty to stay within the 55500-56500 range.
The Bank Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 54900 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 1 Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. PCR is on extreme end suggesting we can see sharp reversal .
It is very difficult for the mind to just watch the market unfold. Our minds, egos, left hemispheres, must get into the act no matter now many times they have been proven to be painfully incapable of doing the job consistently.
For Positional Traders, The Bank Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 55543. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 55440, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Bank Nifty Expiry Range
Upper End of Expiry : 55832
Lower End of Expiry : 54907
BANK Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 55456 Tgt 55610, 55832 and 56000 (BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 55200 Tgt 55055 , 54907 and 54729 (BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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