FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to maintain a bearish outlook in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively shorting 7,488 contracts worth ₹1,331 crore. This activity resulted in a minor decrease of 796 contracts in net open interest, indicating position adjustments rather than aggressive fresh shorting.
Breaking Down FII Activity
- FIIs covered 3,723 long contracts, reducing their bullish exposure.
- FIIs added 3,064 short contracts, reinforcing their bearish bias.
Client Behavior
- Clients added 6,024 long contracts, signaling confidence in a potential uptrend.
- Clients covered 871 short contracts, reducing their bearish bets.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs: Holding 16% long and 84% short positions, indicating a strong bearish stance.
- Clients: Holding 72% long and 28% short positions, reflecting a more optimistic market outlook.
Market Outlook & Key Takeaways
✔ FIIs remain heavily short, showing skepticism about sustained upside momentum.
✔ Clients, on the other hand, are increasing long positions, suggesting they are positioning for a rebound.
✔ If a positive trigger emerges, such as a favorable RBI policy decision or strong earnings, we could see short-covering by FIIs, leading to a sharp rally.
✔ However, if Nifty fails to sustain key support levels, FIIs may continue adding to their shorts, driving further downside.
Nifty formed a bearish candle at the Octave Point of 23,779, facing precise resistance at the Gann angle (23,779–23,822). This zone has emerged as a key supply area, limiting further upside.
Adding to this, Nifty has completed 90 days from the September 26, 2024 top, creating a strong confluence of Gann price & time cycles. With the RBI policy announcement approaching, the market is setting up for a potentially big move.
Tomorrow’s weekly expiry further amplifies the chances of high volatility, making it a day for traders to stay alert.
Key Resistance & Support Levels
Supply Zone: 23,779–23,822 → Bulls must break and sustain above this zone to push Nifty towards 24,000.
Support Zone: 23,700 → A breakdown below this level could trigger further downside, shifting momentum in favor of bears.
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
- A breakout above 23,822 could fuel a rally towards 24,000.
- A breakdown below 23,700 could invite sharp selling pressure.
- With weekly expiry and RBI policy ahead, expect large swings and sudden reversals.
Traders should manage risk carefully and stay prepared for a volatile session!
Nifty once again faced resistance at the critical 23,779–23,822 zone, with today’s high at 23,773, before witnessing a small dip ahead of the crucial RBI policy announcement.
Adding to the significance, today marks 90 days from the September 26, 2024 top, creating a strong confluence of price and time cycles just as an important macro event unfolds. This alignment suggests that a major move could be on the horizon.
Bayer Rules Indicating a Key Turning Point
Bayer Rule No. 38 – Mercury Latitude Heliocentric
- Some of the most powerful tops and bottoms are formed when Mercury passes key heliocentric degrees.
Bayer Rule No. 14 – Venus Movements in Geocentric Longitude
- The impact of Venus at a specific geocentric degree can act as a catalyst for market reversals or breakouts.
Market Outlook: Prepare for Volatility
- Key Supply Zone: 23,779–23,822 → Bulls need a strong breakout above this level for further upside.
- Support Levels to Watch: A break below key support of 23521 could invite aggressive selling pressure.
- With the RBI policy announcement today, expect sharp intraday swings as markets react to policy cues.
Watch the video below for a detailed discussion
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23805 for a move towards 23882/23958/24035. Bears will get active below 23652 for a move towards 23576/23499/23423
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:34,10:49,12:20,01:30,02:38 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.67 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 1.7 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 18:32 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23721 closed below it.
Nifty has closed above its 20 SMA @ 23277 Trend has changed to Buy on Dips till above 23521
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23600 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.85.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23800 strike, followed by 24000 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23600 strike, followed by 23500 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 23500-24000 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 3549 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2721 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
“I do not believe in gambling or reckless speculation, but am firmly convinced, after years of experience, that if traders will follow rules and trade on definite indications, that speculation can be made a profitable profession” W D Gann
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23580. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 23708, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23623 Tgt 23666, 23699 and 23729 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 23555 Tgt 23512, 23480 and 23444 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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