FII Activity: Bullish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to exhibit a bullish outlook in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively buying 26,750 contracts worth ₹4,760 crore. This activity resulted in a minor decrease of 1,768 contracts in net open interest, indicating position adjustments rather than fresh additions.
Breaking Down FII Activity
- FIIs added 3,517 long contracts, increasing their bullish exposure.
- FIIs covered 16,421 short contracts, further reducing bearish bets.
Client Behavior
- Clients covered 21,719 long contracts, suggesting profit booking or reducing bullish exposure.
- Clients also covered 10,481 short contracts, reducing bearish exposure.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs: Holding 17% long and 83% short positions, still maintaining a bearish bias despite recent long additions.
- Clients: Holding 72% long and 28% short positions, indicating a more optimistic market outlook.
Market Outlook & Key Takeaways
- FIIs covering shorts suggests reduced bearish conviction, which could pave the way for short-covering rallies if momentum builds.
- Clients remain strongly bullish, expecting continued upside.
- Despite a bullish tilt, FIIs are still heavily short, meaning any sudden positive trigger (such as RBI Policy or favorable global cues) could fuel a sharp rally.
Nifty Declines from Gann Resistance – Key Levels to Watch
Nifty witnessed a decline from its Gann angle resistance zone, as highlighted in the chart below. Additionally, price reacted from the Semi-Annual Pivot (SAP) level at 23,521, leading to a pullback.
Market Outlook & Key Levels
- Bullish Case: With Trump delaying tariffs, Nifty is expected to open gap-up. However, the 23,521–23,533 zone remains critical resistance. Bulls need a decisive close above this range for further upside.
- Bearish Case: Failure to sustain above 23,521 could lead to renewed selling pressure.
Astro Impact: Venus Sign Change
Today, we also have a Venus sign change, which could influence market momentum. The potential impact is discussed in the video below.
Watch the video for detailed insights
Nifty reacted strongly to the Venus Ingress and Jupiter turning direct, triggering a breakout once the price closed above the 23,521–23,533 range. The Sensex expiry further accelerated momentum, pushing Nifty higher.
Key Resistance & Support Levels
- Supply Zone: 23,779–23,822 → Bulls need to clear this level to drive Nifty towards 24,000.
- Support Zone: 23,700 → If Nifty breaks below this level, bears will regain control, potentially leading to further downside.
Market Outlook
- A sustained move above 23,822 could trigger a rally towards 24,000.
- A break below 23,700 may bring in selling pressure, leading to a retracement.
- Astro & Gann cycles continue to align, signaling increased volatility in the coming sessions
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23805 for a move towards 23882/23958/24035. Bears will get active below 23652 for a move towards 23576/23499/23423
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:25,10:59,11:57,01:21,02:46 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.66 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 4.2 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was covering of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 40:10 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23721 closed above it.
Nifty has closed above its 20 SMA @ 23272 Trend has changed to Buy on Dips once above 23400.
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23800 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 1.05 .Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23800 strike, followed by 24000 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23600 strike, followed by 23500 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 23500-24000 levels.
Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights
Retail Activity in Options Market
Retail investors exhibited mixed positioning, showing a neutral to slightly bullish stance based on today’s data:
Call Options:
- Covered 382 contracts (closing existing long positions)
- Covered 227K contracts (reducing call exposure, signaling caution)
Put Options:
- Added 620K contracts (increasing bearish hedging)
- Shorted 407K contracts (indicating expectations of limited downside)
Takeaway: Retail traders are hedging with puts but also reducing call exposure, suggesting they are preparing for volatility without aggressively betting in one direction.
FII Activity in Options Market
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) showed a neutral to bullish bias, with significant changes in both call and put positioning:
Call Options:
- Added 12.2K contracts (indicating fresh bullish bets)
- Covered 84.4K contracts (reducing bearish positions)
Put Options:
- Added 59K contracts (hedging against downside risk)
- Shorted 95K contracts (reducing bearish exposure)
Takeaway: FIIs appear to be shifting towards a bullish outlook, as they are reducing short positions in calls and puts, suggesting lower conviction in a downside move.
Market Outlook & Key Takeaways
- Retail traders are cautious, using puts for downside protection.
- FIIs are reducing their bearish exposure, hinting at a potential short-covering rally.
- With heavy put shorting, a strong upside move could trigger aggressive unwinding and fuel a sharp rally.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 809 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) sold 430 crores.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
“I do not believe in gambling or reckless speculation, but am firmly convinced, after years of experience, that if traders will follow rules and trade on definite indications, that speculation can be made a profitable profession” W D Gann
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23508. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 23654, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23800 Tgt 23848, 23898 and 23950 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 23690 Tgt 23641, 23592 and 23530 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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