Venus Sign Change 2024: Nifty Outlook for 04-Feb-2025

By | February 4, 2025 7:31 am

FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to exhibit a bearish outlook in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively shorting 7,745 contracts worth ₹1,356 crore. This activity has resulted in a minor increase of 2,487 contracts in net open interest, indicating a cautious stance ahead of key market events.

Breaking Down FII Activity

  • FIIs covered 3,517 long contracts, reducing their bullish exposure.
  • FIIs added 6,348 short contracts, further strengthening their bearish positioning.

Client Behavior

  • Clients added 1,644 long contracts, signaling confidence in a potential uptrend.
  • Clients also covered 2,350 short contracts, indicating reduced bearish sentiment.

Current Positioning in Index Futures

  • FIIs: Holding 10% long and 90% short positions, reinforcing a strong bearish bias despite a small increase in long exposure.
  • Clients: Holding 71% long and 29% short positions, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the market.

Market Outlook & Key Takeaways

  • FIIs remain heavily short, indicating skepticism about near-term market strength.
  • Clients are relatively bullish, expecting stability or a potential rebound.
  • Any positive trigger in RBI Policy, could lead to aggressive short covering by FIIs, potentially driving Nifty higher.

As we approach critical macro events, traders should brace for heightened volatility and use strict risk management strategies.

As Discussed in Last Analysis

Nifty experienced a decent upmove but failed to close above 22,976, as SENSEX expiry pressure at 2:45 PM, combined with our time cycle, triggered a 200-point decline within 15 minutes.

Today, with the New Moon and Uranus Declination, Reliance and IT stocks should be on the radar.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Bullish Scenario: Nifty needs to close above 23,150 to confirm a short-term bottom, potentially triggering rapid short covering toward 23,343–23,400.
  • Bearish Scenario: A break below 22,850 could lead to a decline toward 22,751/22,666.

Nifty Declines from Gann Resistance – Key Levels to Watch

Nifty witnessed a decline from its Gann angle resistance zone, as highlighted in the chart below. Additionally, price reacted from the Semi-Annual Pivot (SAP) level at 23,521, leading to a pullback.

Market Outlook & Key Levels

  • Bullish Case: With Trump delaying tariffs, Nifty is expected to open gap-up. However, the 23,521–23,533 zone remains critical resistance. Bulls need a decisive close above this range for further upside.
  • Bearish Case: Failure to sustain above 23,521 could lead to renewed selling pressure.

Astro Impact: Venus Sign Change

Today, we also have a Venus sign change, which could influence market momentum. The potential impact is discussed in the video below.

Watch the video for detailed insights

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23450 for a move towards 23506/23603/23679. Bears will get active below 23374 for a move towards 23298/23222.

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:27,11:14,12:19,01:41,02:50 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.71 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 2.6 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was covering of SHORT positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 15:35 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.

Nifty Gann Monthly  Trade level :23721 closed below it.

Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 23272 Trend has changed to Buy on Dips once above 23250

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23200 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.85.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23400 strike, followed by 23500  strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23100 strike, followed by 23000 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 23100-23500 levels.

Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights

Retail Activity in Options Market

According to today’s data, retail investors showed a neutral bias, as their positioning remained balanced:

  • Bought: 383K Call Option contracts
  • Shorted: 361K Call Option contracts
  • Bought: 228K Put Option contracts
  • Added: 257K Put Option contracts

This suggests retail traders are not aggressively bullish or bearish, waiting for clearer market direction.

FII Activity in Options Market

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) exhibited a Neutral to Bullish bias, as seen in their positioning:

  • Call Options:
    • Covered 288 contracts (closing existing short positions)
    • Added 85.3K contracts (indicating bullish intent)
  • Put Options:
    • Added 36K contracts
    • Shorted 79K contracts (suggesting reduced bearish positioning)

Key Takeaway: FIIs appear to be shifting toward a bullish stance, while retail traders remain neutral. This positioning could lead to a potential breakout if positive triggers emerge.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 3958 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2708 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.

To succeed as a trader, stay disciplined. Base your decisions on shifting market conditions—not fear.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23472 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 23382 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 23450 Tgt 23481, 23530 and 23580 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 23374 Tgt 23323, 23261 and 23222 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

► Join Youtube channel : Click here

Check out Gann Course Details: W.D. Gann Trading Strategies

Check out Financial Astrology Course Details: Trading Using Financial Astrology

Check out Gann Astro Indicators Details: Gann Astro Indicators

Leave a Reply