Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a bullish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by buying 13,119 contracts worth ₹780 crores. This resulted in a decrease of 7,751 contracts in the net open interest.
FIIs added 2,558 long contracts and covered 4,959 short contracts, reflecting a preference for increasing their long exposure while reducing their short positions in Nifty Futures. However, the net FII long-short ratio remains at 0.22, indicating an overall bearish stance.
On the other hand, Clients covered 238 long contracts and added 9,464 short contracts, showing a preference for increasing short positions.
Current Positioning in Index Futures:
- FIIs: Holding 18% long and 82% short positions.
- Clients: Holding 68% long and 32% short positions.
Analysis:
While FIIs have increased their long exposure and reduced shorts, their positioning remains significantly skewed toward the short side, maintaining a bearish outlook. In contrast, Clients hold a majority of long positions, though they have started adding shorts.
Traders should monitor these positioning shifts closely, as they could provide insights into the market’s near-term direction.
Nifty experienced its worst fall in the last 3 months, triggered by the HMPV Virus panic and, from an astrological perspective, the Mars Ingress, as discussed in the video below. As we’ve mentioned multiple times, when time aligns with price, we often witness explosive moves.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Any rise today, unless the price closes above the 23729-23779 zone, is likely to be used for shorting by market participants.
- Price also closed below its 200 DMA, with the last breakdown occurring on 23rd October 2023.
Traders should remain cautious as the market reacts to both technical and macro factors, and further downside could be in play if key levels are not defended.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23666 for a move towards 23729/23779/23864 . Bears will get active below 23600 for a move towards 23555/23484
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:39,10:23,11:08,12:42,02:33 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.24 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 1.69 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 04:45 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @25178 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23637 close below it.
Nifty has closed below its 200 SMA @ 23907 Trend has changed to Sell on Rise till below 24000
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23800 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.72 Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23800 strike, followed by 24000 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23600 strike, followed by 23500 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 23500-23800 levels.
Retail Activity in Options Market: Bullish Bias Indicated
According to today’s data, retail investors bought 160 K Call Option contracts and shorted 123 K Call Option contracts. Additionally, they bought 82 K Put Option contracts and covered 134K Put Option contracts, indicating a bullish bias in the market.
FII Activity in Options Market: Bearish Bias Indicated
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought 83K Call Option contracts and shorted 101K Call Option contracts. On the Put side, FIIs covered 65 K Put Option contracts and shorted 34 K Put Option contracts, suggesting a shift towards a bearish bias.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 2575 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 5749 crores.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
“When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” – Mark Douglas
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23927 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 23862 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23684 Tgt 23729, 23779 and 23824 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 23600 Tgt 23555, 23529 and 23484 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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