FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Bank Nifty Index Futures
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) exhibited a bearish stance in the Bank Nifty Index Futures market by shorting 5844 contracts worth ₹475 crores. This activity resulted in a Increase of 1294 contracts in the net open interest.
Bayer’s Rule once again proved effective in capturing the trend, as discussed earlier. The price convincingly closed below 52348 , signaling further downside, and with today’s gap-down opening, bears are expected to take control. Astro and Gann levels continue to provide an additional edge in identifying key market moves.
Key Factors to Watch Today:
- Fed Surprise: The Fed delivered an unexpected decision yesterday, with no rate cuts, adding to global market uncertainty.
- Critical 100 SMA Level: The price is approaching the 100 SMA at 51724.
- A close below 51724 could signal more pain, with potential downside toward the last swing low of 51000/50555
- Bulls need a close above 52000 to regain control and initiate any meaningful upside.
Traders should stay cautious and monitor these critical levels closely, as the market navigates through expiry-related volatility and global macro influences.
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Bank Nifty managed to hold its 200 DMA, with the price successfully maintaining the gap throughout the day. A reversal was observed in line with Gann’s seasonal date, as discussed in the video below.
With monthly expiry today, it’s worth noting that the previous month’s expiry level was 51,907, which gives bears an edge heading into today’s session.
Astrological Events to Watch Today:
- Solar Eclipse Degree Day
- Bayer Rule 27:
“Big tops and major bottoms are when Mercury’s speed in Geocentric longitude is 59 minutes or 1 degree 58 minutes.” - Double Lunar Date
- Jupiter-Saturn Aspect
Key Trading Strategy:
The first 15 minutes’ high and low will be crucial for guiding intraday traders through the day’s movements, particularly with the heightened volatility expected due to the astro events and monthly expiry.
Bank Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 51369 for a move towards 51482/51595/51708.Bears will get active below 51256 for a move towards 51143/51030
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:28,10:12,11:13,01:19,02:55 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Bank Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 14.4 lakh, with liquidation of 6.2 lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a liquidation of SHORT positions today.
Bank Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 12:00 and Bank Nifty Rollover Cost is @51689 closed above it.
Bank Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :52769 closed above it.
Bank Nifty closed above 200 SMA @50525,Trend has changed to Buy on Dips till above 50500.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Bank Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Bank Nifty may follow a path of 51724-53263-54801. This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Bank Nifty moves through these levels. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
According to the Bank Nifty options chain, the call side has the highest open interest (OI) at the 51500 strike, followed by the 51800 strike. On the put side, the 51000 strike has the highest OI, followed by the 50800 strike.This indicates that market participants anticipate Bank Nifty to stay within the 51000-52000 range.
The Bank Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 51300 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.85. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. PCR is on extreme end suggesting we can see sharp reversal .
“When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” – Mark Douglas
For Positional Traders, The Bank Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 51358. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 52789, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Bank Nifty Expiry Range
Upper End of Expiry : 51680
Lower End of Expiry : 50954
BANK Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 51350 Tgt 51464, 51630 and 51850 ( BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 51220 Tgt 51100, 50870 and 50705 (BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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