FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a bearish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by shorting 1954 contracts worth ₹116 crores. This resulted in a increase of 4994 contracts in the net open interest.
FIIs covered 3013 long contracts and added 7231 short contracts, reflecting a preference for reducing their long exposure while increasing their short positions in Nifty Futures. The net FII long-short ratio is 0.66, indicating a more bearish stance.
On the other hand, Clients added 29507 long contracts and covered 4109 short contracts, showing bullish positioning ias part of their trading strategy.
Current Positioning in Index Futures:
- FIIs: Holding 36% long and 64% short positions.
- Clients: Holding 65% long and 35% short positions.
Analysis:
FIIs are showing a more bearish bias, with a higher percentage of short positions. Meanwhile, clients remain more optimistic, holding a larger percentage of long positions.
Bayer’s Rule once again proved effective in capturing the trend, as discussed earlier. The price convincingly closed below 24,250, signaling further downside, and with today’s gap-down opening, bears are expected to take control. Astro and Gann levels continue to provide an additional edge in identifying key market moves.
Key Factors to Watch Today:
- Weekly Expiry: Today being a weekly expiry, heightened volatility is expected.
- Fed Surprise: The Fed delivered an unexpected decision yesterday, with no rate cuts, adding to global market uncertainty.
- Critical 200 SMA Level: The price is approaching the 200 SMA at 23,803.
- A close below 23,803 could signal more pain, with potential downside toward the last swing low of 23,180.
- Bulls need a close above 24,000 to regain control and initiate any meaningful upside.
Traders should stay cautious and monitor these critical levels closely, as the market navigates through expiry-related volatility and global macro influences.
Breaking the Cycle: How to Overcome and Prevent Trading Addiction
Nifty is struggling to close above its 200 DMA at 23841, with the price successfully maintaining the gap throughout the day and price formaing a DOJI A reversal was observed in line with Gann’s seasonal date, as discussed in the video below.
Astrological Events to Watch Today:
- Solar Eclipse Degree Day
- Bayer Rule 27:
“Big tops and major bottoms are when Mercury’s speed in Geocentric longitude is 59 minutes or 1 degree 58 minutes.” - Double Lunar Date
- Jupiter-Saturn Aspect
The first 15 minutes’ high and low will be crucial for guiding intraday traders through the day’s movements, particularly with the heightened volatility expected due to the astro events and monthly expiry.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23801 for a move towards 23877/23954/24031. Bears will get active below 23690 for a move towards 23614/23537
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:28,10:12,11:13,01:19,02:55 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 0.92 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 1.28 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 37:13 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @25178 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :24406 close below it.
Nifty has closed below its 200 SMA @ 23841 Trend has changed to Sell on Rise till below 24000
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.85 Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23800 strike, followed by 24000 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23700 strike, followed by 23600 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 23700-24100 levels.
Retail Activity in Options Market: Bullish Bias Indicated
According to today’s data, retail investors bought 160 K Call Option contracts and shorted 123 K Call Option contracts. Additionally, they bought 82 K Put Option contracts and covered 134K Put Option contracts, indicating a bullish bias in the market.
FII Activity in Options Market: Bearish Bias Indicated
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought 83K Call Option contracts and shorted 101K Call Option contracts. On the Put side, FIIs covered 65 K Put Option contracts and shorted 34 K Put Option contracts, suggesting a shift towards a bearish bias.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 168 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2227 crores.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
“When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” – Mark Douglas
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23938. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 23782, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23777 Tgt 23816, 23864 and 23920 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 23729 Tgt 23699, 23666 and 23633 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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