FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a bearish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by shorting 14,258 contracts worth ₹888 crores. This resulted in a decrease of 17,234 contracts in the net open interest.
FIIs covered 21,645 long contracts and covered 1,460 short contracts, reflecting a preference for reducing their long exposure while also reducing shorts in Nifty Futures. With a net FII long-short ratio of 0.78, it is evident that FIIs strategically utilized the market movement to reduce long positions while maintaining a bearish stance.
On the other hand, Clients added 12,360 long contracts and 990 short contracts, indicating positioning in both directions as part of their trading strategy.
Current Positioning in Index Futures:
- FIIs: Holding 40% long and 60% short positions.
- Clients: Holding 61% long and 39% short positions.
Analysis:
The data highlights a bearish sentiment from FIIs, as they reduced long positions significantly while continuing to hold a larger percentage of shorts. In contrast, clients appear relatively optimistic, adding to their long exposure.
Traders should remain cautious and monitor these positioning dynamics, as they could shape market trends in the near term.
Nifty has formed an NR21 pattern, with today’s range being the narrowest in the last 21 trading days. Tomorrow, with Venus Opposition Mars, we could witness a volatile expiry, as Mars, known as the planet of energy, could fuel sharp market moves.
Key Levels to Watch:
- For Bulls: A move above 24,700 is needed, with confirmation of a range breakout above 24,770.
- For Bears: A close below 24,575 will signal weakness, with confirmation of further downside once the price closes below 24,500.
Traders’ Note:
Be prepared for increased volatility during expiry, and trade cautiously as the astrological alignment could lead to sharp moves in either direction.
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Nifty Analysis: Volatility Persists with Venus Opposition Mars and Bearish Candlestick Formation
We witnessed a volatile move today due to Venus Opposition Mars, with Nifty forming a bearish candlestick, continuing to trade within the outside bar range established on 5th December. With Mercury turning direct this weekend, it is strongly advised to carry overnight positions with a hedge.
Additionally, today being Friday the 13th, which is often considered inauspicious, adds another layer of caution for traders. On Weekly we are forming NR21 pattern suggesting big move in coming week.
Key Levels to Watch:
- For Bulls: A move above 24,700 is required, with confirmation of a range breakout above 24,770.
- For Bears: A close below 24,575 will indicate weakness, with further downside confirmation if the price closes below 24,500.
Traders’ Note:
Remain vigilant and manage risk effectively, especially given the heightened volatility and potential market moves influenced by both astrological and technical factors.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24463 for a move towards 24582/24621. Bears will get active below 24365 for a move towards 24305/24227
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:54,11:37,12:11,01:02,02:43 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.11 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 0.32Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was liquidation of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 16:34 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @25178 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :24406 close above it.
Nifty has closed above its 20 SMA @ 24409 Trend is Buy on Dips till holding 24400.
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24400 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.92 Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24500 strike, followed by 24600 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24300 strike, followed by 24200 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24500-24800 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 3560 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2646 crores.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23218-23889-24600-25310 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Those who choose to win seek successful role models, develop a road map for success, and accept setbacks as valuable teachers. They put a plan into action, learn from their results, and make adjustments until they achieve victory
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24559 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24521, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 24400 Tgt 24444, 24488 and 24530 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 24350 Tgt 24312, 24266 and 24233 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.