Bear Ruling Dalal Street FII Analysis for 27 Feb Trade

Railways Budget did not went well with market, as there was no fare hikes and freight rate hike. Some sweet talking and big propaganda plans which mostly remain on papers.Market took this as a sign of General Budget coming negative and tanked. Highlights of Railway Budget for 2013-14

1. FIIs sold 43754  Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 1271 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 177542 contracts. Core Education: Is it a Buy ?

2. As CNX Nifty Future was down by 91  points with Open Interest in Index Futures increasing by huge  177542  so FII again intitated shorts  in Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Future.

3. NS closed at 5761 after  making high of 5838 and low of 5749.One most important thing a trader needs to develop is “Flexibility”,Flexible to change colors as per market. We Discussed in Weekly analysis, 5815-30 important support zone and shorts should be lighted up, But today market had no plans of  taking support at this range and many traders lost heavily betting on a bounce back. Trading on a Trading System relaxes you, because you will never go against the trend. We have been short from higher end of range at 6035 and again below 5880. Sticking with the system is the most important thing a traders needs to develop.

 

 

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5783 and 5800  which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5727 and 5700.Trend is Sell on Rise till 5881  is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty Future Feb Open Interest Volume is at 1.50 cores with liquidation of   8 lakh in Open Interest long liquidation in system, Cost of Carry of Nifty Future went to 20.89   showing short addition . Rollovers have started in Index Futures and today 8 lakhs got rollovered and fresh addition of 46 lakhs mostly short addition.

6. Total Future & Option trading volume at 1.99 lakh Cores with total contract traded 3.2 lakh , PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 0.77 and VIX at 17.36.VIX has given very early indication of impending fall to come when it sustained 15.6 odd levels.

7. 6000 Nifty CE  is having highest OI at 0.91 Core with liquidation of 1.7 Lakhs , 6100 CE liquidated 10.9  lakhs in OI so speculative money which entered 6100 CE  move out as premium came down to Rs 0.7 . 5900 Call Option added 12.6 lakhs in Open Interest of  79.4  lakhs premium at Rs 8.5 Huge shorts added , This is how smart money makes money short from 31 to Rs 8 in matter of 1 day,  Bears are now targeting 5800 adding 22 lakhs in OI after conquering 5900 .5700-6100 Call Options added 27.1  lakhs in OI. 

8. 5800 Put Option is having highest  Open Interest of  63 lakhs with liquidation  of 7.4  lakhs in OI  , 5900 PE liquidated  12 lakhs in OI and almost 1.5 lakhs liquidation  in 5700 PE, Bulls were taken by surprise as 5800 was broken and huge jump in Puts premium, They all ran for cover  .5700-6100 Put Options liquidated 24.9  lakhs in OI.Option Table is now tilted towards Bears .

9. FIIs bought in Equity in tune of 75 cores,and DII sold 161 ores in cash segment,INR closed at 54.13

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5792(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5938 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand). Bank Nifty Future Trend Changer Level 12398.

Buy above 5784 Tgt 5800,5818 and 5838

Sell below 5748 Tgt 5736,5727 and 5700(Nifty Spot Levels)

Traders who use Pivot and Camarilla can use the following 2 sites for Hourly values and EOD values

 

http://camarillapivotpoints.blogspot.com/
http://niftystockpivot.blogspot.in/

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