FII Derivatives Analysis for 18 May Trade

By | May 17, 2012 8:18 pm

FII FnO Analysis for 18 May trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  sold 10589  Contracts of Index Futures worth 245 cores OI increased by 23887.

2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 4  points and OI has increased  by 23887 , which signify more shorts have entered the system. Unable to close above 4900 is bearish but today Nifty future were not able to break the 4827 which signify Bulls are active at lower levels.

3.Nifty closed below 4900 which is at 4 months low with INR making a Life time high of 54.66 and closed at 54.43. Rise in INR increases our Current account deficit which is bad for our economy. 78.6% Fibo Retracement from 4531-5630 comes at 4795 so a close below this will be bearish and till 4800 is protected we can see relief rallies.

4.Going by our 80-100 points relief rally concept(New Readers can click here to learn about it) today low was 4837-4882 so we had a rally of 44 points so till 4943 is not breached any rally should be used to short the Index.This is what we wrote yesterday and today high was 4922 and we had a fall.Hope traders took shorts as advised in facebook apge also.

5. Nifty  May  OI has increased by 6.3  Lakhs .Total OI stands at 2.14 cores.Shorts entered the system

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.14 Lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 2.9 lakh.

7. 5200 CE saw unwinding  of 1.9 lakhs in OI,total OI now stands at 72  Lakhs making it the higher end of May Series.Profit Booking was visible as premium has reduced to rs 4.  4800-5300 CE added 5 lakhs in OI which means bears are going slow and smart money is booking profit. 4900 CE added 3 lakh in OI which means for bulls closing above 4900 also looks difficult. Now 5000 looks a strong resistance for May series

8. On Put side 4800 PE is having highest OI of 64 lakhs ,also there was no unwinding which means Bear are going slow and we can see a fast and furious bounce back tomorrow if global cues supports.

9.FII  sold  9 cores and DII bought 254 cores in cash segment.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 4628, Trend Changer at 5048 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).Now the Trend Deciding level is almost same as tomorrow which also signify not much shorts have entered in Nifty Future.

11. We have weekly closing tomorrow and also SBI results. We also have G8 Summit on Weekend which can lead to some good news flow so bears will look to book there profits so powered by short covering we can see a good move on Upside. NF has also formed double bottom which is a bullish sign. So in all i accept some green tomorrow,these are my personal observation and i have full right of being wrong 😉

Buy above 4882 Tgt 4900, 4922 and 4956

Sell below 4837 Tgt 4814,4785 and 4741 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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