Today is crucial day for Nifty because we have 2 Important events lined up
1. Infosys Q2 Results to come at 9 AM
2. IIP data coming at 12 PM.
So lets see How Nifty Technically poised before this 2 major events..
On Hourly chart Nifty is trading in a channel. Yesterday the much talked level of 5035 came with a gap up and Nifty broke above it with huge volume on back of short covering and made a high of 5444 in 15 mins of opening, but was unable to sustain above this level for less than an Hour so it cannot be termed as breakout and finally market broke in afternoon trade and close below 5000.
Hourly Charts of Nifty are Overbought and a correction looks likely if any of the 2 events disappoint. Support on Hourly charts comes at 4964 and 4937 NS
On daily charts still the Ranged Trading strategy works the best ie. Sell at Resistance Top end of Range@5035 and Buy near the lower end Ie. 4778. Nifty unable to close above the swing high of 5035 with Hourly overbought is ripe for a correction which it did yesterday today if it hold 4937 levels another attempt towards 5035 can be made and closing above it will bring us back to 5170 levels.
50 SMA is a wonderful precursor for Fall and Rise in trending phase. Yesterday it got resisted at 50 SMA@5044 Support is now at 20 SMA@4945
In Extremly short term above 20 SMA Bulls rule and below it bears comes active.
On Monday Nifty moved above 20 SMA@4955 and in 2 Days made a High of 5044 ie 89 Points gained.
Now 20 SMA@4945 if it bounces again from this Uptrend continues if It closes below it we will enter fresh downtrend and Shorts can be activated below 4945 and taken to positional trade if Nifty closes below 4945.
Weekly Charts show the importance of downtrending trendline, Nifty unable to close above it and it signifies bearishness but still we have 3 more days left in the week and Infy if it surprises on Upside we will break the trendline and march till 5170.
So prepare for both sides of trading as we are in ranged trading structure not in trending one.
India VIX chart
India VIX chart is on verge of breaking the trendline on downside if this happens Nifty will rally on upside.
Volatility is inversely proportional to Nifty.
VIX rises Nifty Corrects and VIX fall Nifty will Rise
Levels to Trade
Buy above 4995 Tgt 5025,5045,5075 and 5103
Sell below 4945 Tgt 4916,4882,4861 and 4847