FIIs Maintain Bullish Stance in Bank Nifty Futures – April 22, 2024
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to show bullish intent in the Bank Nifty Index Futures segment, buying 1,662 contracts worth ₹276 crore. However, the accompanying increase in open interest (OI) suggests there’s more to this move than just long accumulation.
Key Data Snapshot:
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Contracts Bought: 1,662
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Notional Value: ₹276 crore
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Net Open Interest (OI): Increased by 5,476 contracts
Interpretation:
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The OI increase alongside buying indicates that FIIs are not only adding long positions, but could also be building hedged positions or selectively adding shorts at higher levels to balance exposure.
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This typically reflects a bullish-to-neutral stance — confidence in the trend, but with caution due to proximity to all-time highs or potential event risks.
Market Implications:
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The bias remains positive, especially as Bank Nifty continues to hold above key breakout zones.
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However, with rising OI, traders should be prepared for higher intraday volatility or consolidation.
Simple Trading Rules for Consistent Success – Master the Market
As Discussed in Last Analysis
Bank Nifty rallied sharply to make a new all-time high, just as anticipated in our previous analysis based on Gann geometry and astro timing.
Since April 15, when Venus turned direct, Bank Nifty has gained 3,598 points, validating the power of combining Price, Time, and Event — when all three align, markets tend to make explosive moves.
Key Astro & Gann Signals Ahead
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Mars and Sun Sign Change this week → often associated with strong directional shifts.
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Bayer Rule 27:
“Big tops and big major bottoms are formed when Mercury’s speed in Geocentric longitude is 59 minutes or 1°58′.”
This rule is now active, signaling the possibility of a major move or reversal.
Key Levels to Watch (April 21 Range):
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High: 55,461
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Low: 54,674
Break of either side could lead to a move of 729 to 1,008 points in Bank Nifty.
Stay alert for a range breakout, which could define the next major leg.
Global Sentiment Check
While US markets are showing weakness, Asian markets — including India — are holding up. However:
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Dollar Index (DXY) is the key to watch:
A reversal from the 96–97 zone could trigger a correction in emerging markets, including India.
Final Trading Strategy:
✅ Trade based on levels, time cycles, and confirmation.
❌ Avoid trading on emotions or noise from global uncertainty.
When markets move fast, discipline in execution and exit is more important than prediction.
️ Condolences
Deeply saddened by the loss of innocent lives in the tragic act of terrorism in Pahalgam. Thoughts and prayers are with the affected families during this difficult time.
Bank Nifty has completed a 6-day rally, with today marking the 7th session. If the index opens higher, it would be the 4th consecutive gap-up — a potential sign of exhaustion, especially when aligned with broader global cues.
Key Risk Factors to Monitor
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Exhaustion Gap: Multiple gap-ups without healthy consolidation often lead to sharp pullbacks once momentum stalls.
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US-China Trade Developments:
A potential deal between the U.S. and China could trigger a rally in the Dollar Index (DXY), which tends to be negative for emerging markets like India. -
Earnings Season: So far, corporate results have been mixed to underwhelming, which could weigh on sentiment once the technical momentum fades.
Key Level to Watch: 55,400
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If Bank Nifty trades below 55,400, it could trigger profit booking and a short-term correction.
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Breakdown below this level may push the index toward support zones near 54,700–54,300.
Trading Strategy
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Tight Stop-Losses are essential at this stage.
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Avoid chasing gap-ups — focus on confirmation through price action.
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Consider partial profit-booking if holding long positions, and be ready for short setups if reversal signs emerge below key levels.
Bank Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 55889 for a move towards 56363 Bears will get active below 55417 for a move towards 54948/54480
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:15,10:13,12:13,01:23,02:28 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Bank Nifty April Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 16.1 lakh, with liquidation of 2 lakh contracts. Additionally, the Increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a closuere of LONG positions today.
Bank Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 08:04 and Bank Nifty Rollover Cost is @52173 closed above it.
Bank Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :52348 closed above it.
Bank Nifty closed above 200 SMA @51000,Trend is Buy on Dips till above 54872
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Bank Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Bank Nifty may follow a path of 53707-55304-56734. This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Bank Nifty moves through these levels. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
According to the Bank Nifty options chain, the call side has the highest open interest (OI) at the 56000 strike, followed by the 56500 strike. On the put side, the 55500 strike has the highest OI, followed by the 55000 strike.This indicates that market participants anticipate Bank Nifty to stay within the 55500-56500 range.
The Bank Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 54500 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 1.34. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. PCR is on extreme end suggesting we can see sharp reversal .
We must realize that the market defies logic. It has a logic all its own, and it wonít tell us in advance what its reaction to events will be. We can watch for clues and then react.
For Positional Traders, The Bank Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 55646. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 55400, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Intraday Levels for Bank Nifty:
Buy Above 56000 Tgt 56150, 56335 and 56555 ( Bank Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 55729 Tgt 55555, 55275 and 55055 (Bank Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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