Nifty Breaks 24000: Price–Time–Event Alignment Explained

FIIs Maintain Bullish Stance in Index Futures – April 22, 2024

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their bullish positioning in the Nifty Index Futures segment, adding to their long positions despite a marginal rise in shorts. The net open interest (OI) declined, indicating some short covering or exit of older positions, even as fresh longs were initiated.

Key FII Data Highlights:

• Contracts Bought: 7,047

• Total Value: ₹1,283 crore

• Net OI Change: -4,635 contracts (OI decreased)

FII Breakdown:

• Added Longs: 6,552 contracts

• Added Shorts: 549 contracts

FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.46
Positioning: 32% Long : 68% Short

Interpretation:
Despite still being short-heavy, FIIs are gradually increasing long exposure. The drop in OI with increased longs suggests partial short covering, signaling improving sentiment and bullish intent with reduced conviction on the downside.

Client Activity Snapshot:

• Added Longs: 5,111 contracts

• Added Shorts: 13,273 contracts

Client Long-to-Short Ratio: 1.06
Positioning: 52% Long : 48% Short

Interpretation:
Clients have turned more balanced, adding aggressively on both sides — possibly indicating hedging behavior or expectation of increased volatility.

Market Outlook Based on Positioning:

• • FIIs building longs while trimming older exposure signals a shift in tone, albeit still within a cautious framework.

  • Clients are neutral-bullish with more hedged setups.

  • If FII long additions continue and cross the 35% threshold, it could trigger a short-covering rally in the coming sessions.

Simple Trading Rules for Consistent Success – Master the Market

As Discussed in Last Analysis

Nifty opened with another gap-up, completely recovering the losses from the Trump tariff announcement — becoming the first major global index to do so.

This highlights the resilience of the Indian market, and shows that being less export-dependent and having limited exposure to U.S.-centric trade flows can be an advantage in times of geopolitical tension.

Astro Highlights Driving Short-Term Volatility

• Yesterday: Venus turned direct in Pisces

• Today: Mercury enters Aries

Both Venus and Mercury are inner planets, which tend to impact short-term market trends. When these two shift back-to-back, it often increases intraday volatility, making it more suitable for short-term or intraday trading strategies.

Intraday Strategy – Levels to Watch

First 15-Minute High & Low will be critical to set the tone for the day — use this to capture intraday momentum.

Bullish Scenario

• As long as Nifty holds above 23,175, bulls are in control.

• Upside Targets:

  • 23,521 – Gann resistance

  • 23,666 – Higher supply zone

Bearish Scenario

• If 23,175 breaks decisively, bears may take charge.

• Downside Targets:

  • 23,033 – Immediate support

  • 22,900 – Gann angle & swing zone

With astro events aligning and technical levels being tested, expect volatility but also trading opportunities. Use defined risk, focus on intraday setups, and avoid overnight exposure unless hedged.

Nifty rallied sharply to break above the previous swing high of 23,868 and closed comfortably above the psychological 24,000 mark, in line with our previous analysis based on Gann geometry and astro timing.

Since April 15, when Venus turned direct, Nifty has gained nearly 900 points, reinforcing the power of combining Price, Time, and Event. When these elements align, markets often witness explosive directional moves.

Key Astro & Gann Triggers Ahead

• Mars and Sun Sign Change this week → Known to bring sharp trend shifts in financial markets.

• Bayer Rule 27:
  “Big tops and big major bottoms are formed when Mercury’s speed in Geocentric longitude is 59 minutes or 1°58′.”
  This rule is now active, and historically signals high-probability reversal zones.

Nifty Levels to Watch (April 21 Range)

• High: 24,190

• Low: 23,903

Break of either side could result in a move of 225 to 343 points, giving us projected targets of:

• Upside: 24,415 – 24,533

• Downside: 23,678 – 23,560

Stay alert for a range breakout, which may define the next trending leg for the index.

Global Sentiment Overview

• US markets remain weak, but Asian markets — particularly India — continue to hold firm.

• Watch the Dollar Index (DXY) closely:
  A reversal from the 96–97 zone could trigger risk-off sentiment and a correction in emerging markets, including India.

Final Trading Strategy

• Focus on key price levels, Gann time cycles, and confirmation from intraday price action.

• Avoid emotional trading or reacting to global noise without structure.

• In fast-moving markets, execution and exit discipline matter more than prediction.

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24167 for a move towards 24478/24792 Bears will get active below 23857 for a move towards 23549/23243

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:15,10:24,12:15,01:29,02:11 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty April Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.11 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 5.7 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the decrease in Cost of Carry implies that there was closure of LONG positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 33:17 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @22900 closed below it.

Nifty Gann Monthly  Trade level :23521 closed above it

Nifty has closed Above its 200 SMA @ 24051 Trend is Buy on Dips till above 24000

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24200  and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 1.11 .Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24200 strike, followed by 24300 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24000 strike, followed by 23900 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24000-24300 levels.

Options Market Activity – April 22, 2024

‍ Retail Investor Activity

Call Options:

• Added: 789K contracts

• Shorted: 647K contracts

Put Options:

• Added: 889K contracts

• Shorted: 711K contracts

Interpretation:
Retail traders are actively participating on both sides, with a slightly higher buildup on puts. This suggests neutral to mildly bearish sentiment, or possibly hedging for downside risk while expecting volatility.

‍ FII Options Activity

Call Options:

• Added: 199K contracts

• Shorted: 260K contracts

Put Options:

• Added: 173K contracts

• Shorted: 257 contracts

Interpretation:
FIIs are net sellers in both call and put segments, indicating a strategy of premium collection — expecting the market to remain range-bound or less volatile in the short term. This setup often reflects a neutral to cautiously optimistic view.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 1970 Cr  , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 246 cr.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23037-23722-24408-25134 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable. 

We must realize that the market defies logic. It has a logic all its own, and it wonít tell us in advance what its reaction to events will be. We can watch for clues and then react.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23855. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24077, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 24150 Tgt 24190, 24240 and 24285 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 24099 Tgt 24048, 24000 and 23956  (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

► Join Youtube channel : Click here

► Check out Gann Course Details: W.D. Gann Trading Strategies

► Check out Financial Astrology Course Details: Trading Using Financial Astrology

► Check out Gann Astro Indicators Details: Gann Astro Indicators