FII & Client Activity in Index Futures – April 9, 2024
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to maintain a bearish stance, actively shorting 7314 contracts worth ₹1233 crore. This led to a net open interest decrease of 7376 contracts, indicating covering of LONG positions
Breaking Down FII Activity
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✔ FIIs covered: 7473 long contracts
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✔ FIIs covered: 767 short contracts
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Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.27
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Positioning: 21% Long : 79% Short
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View: Continued pessimism, with FIIs adding significantly to shorts while trimming longs.
Client Behavior
Retail and proprietary clients showed moderate bullishness, covering longs and adding shorts
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✔ Clients added : 9076 long contracts
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✔ Clients added: 1176 short contracts
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Long-to-Short Ratio: 1.40
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Positioning: 58% Long : 42% Short
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View: Cautiously optimistic, likely hedging positions
Trump’s 90-Day Tariff Pause Sparks Market Rally and Eases Trade Tensions
The U.S. has imposed a steep 104% tariff on Chinese imports after Beijing refused to soften its trade stance. This is a clear escalation of the trade war, and such protectionist moves tend to act as negative sentiment drivers for global markets, including India.
RBI MPC Meeting – Policy Expectations
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A 25 bps rate cut is widely expected, and markets have likely already priced it in.
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The focus will shift to the RBI’s commentary on liquidity, inflation, and growth outlook.
Key Technical Levels for Nifty
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Bulls need a close above: 22,637 → to regain control.
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Bears will dominate below: 22,337 → may trigger fresh downside.
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Between 22,337–22,637: Expect continued volatile, range-bound action.
RBI Rate Cut + Trump Tariff Pause = Perfect Combo for Bulls
A powerful combination of positive domestic and global cues is expected to lift market sentiment going into the weekend. The RBI has delivered the anticipated rate cut, and Trump has announced a pause on tariffs, creating a bullish setup for the next session.
Astrological Drivers – New Trend Incoming?
Two significant planetary aspects are aligning, as explained in the video below. These events are known to mark major market turning points:
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☿ Mercury Conjunct North Node → Signals clarity and sudden directional moves.
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♂ Mars Trine North Node → Involves Mars, ruler of the year, and the North Node (Rahu), both associated with volatility, aggression, and rapid shifts.
When Mars and the North Node interact, markets tend to experience strong breakouts or breakdowns.
️ Weekly Close & Holiday Ahead
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Key Bullish Level: Close above 22,939 → Strong finish for bulls.
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Key Bearish Level: Close below 22,848 → Bears could regain short-term control.
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Monday is a Trading Holiday → Expect increased position adjustments in the last hour of trade.
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Overnight trades should be carried with proper hedges, given the volatility and astro triggers.
Outlook: Time Correction Ahead?
With a highly volatile week behind us, markets may now enter a time correction phase for the next 3–4 sessions. Expect sideways consolidation unless a major trigger unfolds.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22939 for a move towards 23243/23549 Bears will get active below 22800 for a move towards 22637/22337
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:47,10:50,11:45,12:38,01:52,02:49 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty April Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.31 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 2.6 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the decrease in Cost of Carry implies that there was closure of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 15:34 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23797 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :22835 closed below it
Nifty has closed Below its 20 SMA @ 23000 Trend has changed to Sell on Rise till below 22550
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22750 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.87 .Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22600 strike, followed by 22700 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22400 strike, followed by 22300 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22300-22700 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 4358 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2976 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22094-22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Don’t trade without a plan. Before you start trading, it’s important to have a plan in place. This plan should include your trading goals, your risk tolerance, and your trading strategy.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 22970 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22475 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 22939 Tgt 23000, 23084 and 23165 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 22857 Tgt 22800, 22729 and 22666 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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