FII & Client Activity in Index Futures – April 3, 2024

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to maintain a bearish stance, actively shorting 9,293 contracts worth ₹1,543 crore. This led to a net open interest increase of 10,037 contracts, indicating fresh short additions and growing negative sentiment.

Breaking Down FII Activity

• FIIs covered: 5,425 long contracts

• FIIs added: 15,598 short contracts

• Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.33

• Positioning: 25% Long : 75% Short

• View: Continued pessimism, with FIIs adding significantly to shorts while trimming longs.

Client Behavior

Retail and proprietary clients showed moderate bullishness, adding both longs and shorts, but with a greater bias toward the long side.

• Clients added: 3,107 long contracts

• Clients added: 5,666 short contracts

• Long-to-Short Ratio: 1.36

• Positioning: 58% Long : 42% Short

• View: Cautiously optimistic, likely hedging positions amid upcoming RBI policy and increased volatility.

Navigating Market Corrections: A Comprehensive Guide for Investors and Traders

As Discussed in Last Analysis

Nifty broke its first 15-minute high and rallied strongly, closing near the day’s high as Mercury Declination showed its Imapct.
Trump’s tariffs had minimal impact on Indian markets due to a decline in US bond yields and weakness in the Dollar Index.
Astro Events Ahead – The next few days will see multiple astrological influences, so traders should proceed with caution.

Key Levels for Weekly Close (April 4, 2024)

• Bears’ Target : 22136–22108 → If they manage to push prices lower, we could see selling pressure.

• Bulls’ Target : 23323–23341 → A close above this range could signal further upside momentum.

Astro Cycles + Gann Levels + Key Zones Ahead of RBI Policy

Nifty opened with a sharp gap down yesterday, formed a double bottom, and took strong support at the 1×6 Gann angle, leading to a sharp intraday recovery. Today, we’re set to open with a gap up again — but the key question remains: Can the gap sustain?

Astro Insights

• Mercury turned direct yesterday, aligning with the recovery — once again showing how astro cycles impact market behavior.

• Pluto Declination today could add to volatility and intraday trend shifts.

• These cosmic shifts often coincide with turning points in the market.

Key Gann Levels & Zones

• 22336 → Monthly Gann TC (Trend Change) level — crucial to monitor throughout the day.

• Resistance Zone: 22400–22444 → multiple technical and astro confluences.

• Support Zone: 22200–22231 → intraday support base; if broken, may invite selling pressure.

Market Strategy

• RBI Policy Day tomorrow → Expect cautious moves and range-bound action after gap up open.

• Intraday traders: Watch the first 15-minute high and low to determine directional bias.

• Sustain above 22444 → may trigger a breakout towards 22500/22610+

• Break below 22200 → could invite profit booking or reversal.

 

 

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22500 for a move towards 22610/22729 Bears will get active below 22400 for a move towards 22323/22255

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:30,11e:31,12:30,01:38,02:22 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty April Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.38 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 22.1 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of LONG positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 01:49 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23797 closed below it.

Nifty Gann Monthly  Trade level :22336 closed below it

Nifty has closed Below its 200 SMA @ 23456 Trend has changed to Sell on Rise till below 22500

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22750  and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.58 .Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22400 strike, followed by 22500 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22100 strike, followed by 22000 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22100-22500 levels.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 9040 Cr  , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 12122 cr.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22094-22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable. 

A trading strategy is the same; you need to be faithful to it for it to give back to you.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23097. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22096 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 22488 Tgt 22525, 22575 and 22610 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 22400 Tgt 22343, 22285 and 222222 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

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