FII Activity: Bullish Buying but Bearish Positioning in Nifty Index Futures
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a bullish stance, actively buying 12,721 contracts worth ₹1,992 crore. This resulted in a net open interest increase of 5,605 contracts, indicating fresh long additions and short covering.
Breaking Down FII Activity
✔ FIIs added 9,163 long contracts, increasing their bullish exposure.
✔ FIIs covered 3,558 short contracts, reducing their bearish bets.
✔ FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.36 → FIIs are still heavily short-biased, but the covering of shorts and long additions suggest a shift in sentiment.
Client Behavior
✔ Clients covered 10,668 long contracts, possibly booking profits.
✔ Clients added 3,636 short contracts, showing some hedging or cautious positioning.
✔ Clients Long-to-Short Ratio: 1.71 → Clients remain bullish overall, expecting a market recovery.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
FIIs: Still short-heavy (27:73), but reducing bearish exposure.
Clients: Maintaining a bullish bias (63:37), but showing caution by increasing shorts.
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India’s inflation rate dipped to 3.61%, lower than expected, boosting market sentiment. Nifty has held the Gann Trend Change level of 22,336 for the past two trading sessions, reinforcing this as a crucial support zone.
Key Technical & Astro Insights
✔ Weekly Close Tomorrow (March 13) – Market Closed on March 14 (Holi Holiday)
✔ Bulls’ Target: A close above 22,600–22,630 to confirm strength.
✔ Bears’ Target: A close below 22,336 to trigger further downside.
✔ Lunar Eclipse & Mercury Ingress This Weekend:
- Market likely to open with a gap on Monday (March 18) → Hedge overnight positions.
- Keep an eye on Real Estate & IT stocks due to the impact of Saturn & Mercury.
✔ If Nifty holds above 22,336 and closes strong, expect further upside next week.
✔ If price closes below this level, expect increased volatility post-Holi.
✔ Lunar Eclipse & Mercury Ingress indicate heightened volatility—manage risk carefully.
Nifty has rallied 700+ points from Friday’s low, reflecting the impact of the Lunar Eclipse and Mercury Retrograde, as discussed in previous videos.
Key Technical & Astro Factors in Play Today
✔ Gann Seasonal Date → A critical cycle that often leads to major trend shifts.
✔ Sun Ingress into Aries → A fire zodiac sign that can increase market momentum and volatility.
✔ Bayer Rule 2 in Effect:
“Trend goes down within 3 days when the speed difference between Mars and Mercury is 59 minutes. Leads to a big move.”
This suggests heightened volatility in the coming sessions.
✔ Price Near Octave Point (22,885) → A crucial level that could act as support or resistance.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Confirmation: A close above 22,975–23,000 → Could extend the rally to 23,189 / 23,300.
Bearish Breakdown: Below 22,800 → Could trigger a downside move.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22975 for a move towards 23050/23125/23200. Bears will get active below 22824 for a move towards 22749/22674
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:07,11:00,12:10,01:32,02:52 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty March Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.67 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 3.2 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 32:18 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @22724 closed above it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :22336 closed above it
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 22553 Trend has changed to Buy on Dips till above 22800
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22900 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 1.02 .Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23000 strike, followed by 23100 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22800 strike, followed by 22700 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22800-23100 levels.
Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights & Market Outlook
The latest options data indicates mixed positioning, with retail traders showing a neutral stance while FIIs lean slightly bullish.
Retail Activity in Options Market
Retail traders balanced their positions, suggesting expectations of range-bound movement.
Call Options:
- Added 270K contracts, showing bullish bets.
- Shorted 248K contracts, signaling expectations of resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 155K contracts, suggesting hedging against downside risk.
- Covered 159K contracts, indicating some reduction in bearish positions.
Retail Takeaway:
Retail traders are not taking a strong directional stance, but they are hedging both upside and downside risks.
FII Activity in Options Market
FIIs showed a bullish tilt, with significant call additions and minimal put activity.
Call Options:
- Added 108K contracts, showing bullish intent.
- Shorted 26K contracts, reinforcing expectations of limited upside resistance.
Put Options:
- Added 48K contracts, showing minor hedging against downside risks.
- Shorted 740 contracts, further reducing bearish exposure.
FII Takeaway:
FIIs are positioning for an upside move, with higher call additions and minimal put hedging.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 1096 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2140 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22094-22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Don’t give up. Trading is a skill that takes time and practice to develop. Don’t give up if you don’t see results immediately. Keep learning and practicing, and you will eventually become a successful trader.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 22533. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22948, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Expiry Range
Upper End of Expiry : 23160
Lower End of Expiry : 22840
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23018 Tgt 23066, 23095 and 23160 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 22940 Tgt 22896, 22840 and 22800 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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