Nifty’s Weekly Expiry: Will the 200 DMA Act as a Strong Support Zone?

By | November 13, 2024 8:59 pm

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Bearish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by Shorting 9654 contracts worth ₹574 crores, resulting in a increase of 13680 contracts in the net open interest. FIIs covered 766 long contracts and added 26436 short contracts, indicating a preference for covering long positions and adding short positions. With a net FII long-short ratio of 0.32 , FIIs utilized the market fall to exit long positions and enter  short positions in Nifty futures. Clients added 37393 long contracts and covered 2812 short contracts.  FII are holding 24 % Long and 76 % Shorts in Index Futures and Clients are holding 66 % Long and 34 % Shorts in Index Futures.

As Discuused in Last Analysis

Nifty opened with a gap-up but was quickly sold into, as the price was unable to breach the first 15 minutes high. Once the Outside Bar low was broken, a waterfall decline followed. In the last 30 minutes, we saw a 150+ point decline, likely due to insiders anticipating the red-hot inflation data, which came in at 6.21%.

For us, we anticipated heightened volatility due to Rahu’s aspect on the market. The decline was largely driven by Reliance, HDFC Bank, and SBIN. As explained in the video below, 23,777 represents the 50% retracement level from the rally that started on June 4 and peaked on September 27, making it a crucial level to watch. If Nifty falls below 23,777, we could see a quick move towards the 200 SMA at 23,514. Bulls only have a chance to regain control if the price moves above 24,020.

Currently, the price is back to its 3×4 Gann angle support, and breaking below this support for two consecutive days could open up further downside potential, possibly towards 23,000.

Nifty experienced a waterfall decline today, with the price breaking below 23,777 and closing well below that level, finding support at 23,514 near its 200 DMA. We also observed the impact of the astro cycle as discussed in the video below. The price has broken below the 3×4 Gann angle and is now heading towards the 1×2 angle around 23,200.

Tomorrow, we have the weekly close (as Friday is a trading holiday), marking the 7th week of decline. The second half of tomorrow’s session is crucial, as it could lead to short covering if the price holds above 23,512.

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23564 for a move towards 23641/23719/23796. Bears will get active below 23487 for a move towards 23410/23332/23255

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:47,10:51,11:59,02:16 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty Nov Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.20 lakh cr , witnessing a addition of 3.2 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 04:46 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @25178 closed below it.

Nifty Gann Monthly  Trade level :24201 close below it.

Nifty is back to its 200 SMA @ 23524 Trend is Sell on Rise  till below 23777.

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23500 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.72 Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23700 strike, followed by 23800 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23500 strike, followed by 23400 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 23400-23800 levels.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 2502 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought  6145 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23218-23889-24600 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.

To create money management, position size calculation or the elaboration of a profitable set of rules. All of these very useful tools are of little help if you are not able to use them in a disciplined manner

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24045. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 23759, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

 Nifty Expiry Range

Upper End of Expiry : 23749

Lower End of Expiry : 23368 

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 23603 Tgt 23647, 23691 and 23743 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 23500 Tgt 23460, 23412 and 23385 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

Leave a Reply