Union Budget 2024 : Nifty Trade Plan

By | July 22, 2024 11:31 pm

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Bearish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by Shorting 20804 contracts worth ₹1274 crores, resulting in a decrease of 1330 contracts in the net open interest. FIIs covered 12454  long contracts and added 7642 short contracts, indicating a preference for covering long positions and adding of short positions. With a net FII long-short ratio of  4.1 , FIIs utilized the market rise to exit long positions and enter short positions in Nifty futures. Clients added 428 long contracts and covered 18774 short contracts.

As Discuused in Last Analysis

Nifty made another all time high today and with Infy results tommrow we can see touch of 25000, so we might see fastest 1000 point move in just 16 trading session, Even a small dip in market is getting bought into, Today Price has touched the 1×1 gann angle, Above 25000 heading towards 25694/27000.. Below 24389 heading towards 23170 .. in next 3 months, Based on our past studies its seen after Budget we see a trend resversal, so if till budget we are up after budget which is monthly expiry week we can see trend change so trade cautiously till 23 July. 

Bayer Rule 27:** Significant tops and major bottoms occur when Mercury’s speed in Geocentric longitude is 59 minutes or 1 degree 58 minutes. This influence will become evident once today’s high of 24595 or today’s low of 24362 is broken. A breakout on either side will lead to a move of 222-323 points within two trading sessions in Nifty. Exit all options trades before the FM finishes the speech, as we will see a massive premium erosion if there are no negative or positive surprises in the budget. It has been observed that the interim budgets in 2014 and 2019 led to short-term trend changes, as shown in the video below.

 

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24618 for a move towards 24697/24776/24854. Bears will get active below 24460 for a move towards 24381/24303/24224.

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:16,10:01,01:39,02:06,02:59 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty June Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.32 lakh cr , witnessing a liquidation of 8.5 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a covering of LONG positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 30:20 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23839 closed above it.

Nifty Gann Monthly  Trade level :24270 close  above  it.

Nifty closed above its 20SMA @24215 Trend is Buy on Dips.

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24600  and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.85 Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24600 strike, followed by 24700 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24300 strike, followed by 24200 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24200-24700 levels.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 3444 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) sold 1652 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23889-24600-25310 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.

Trader make Error because of expectation, Our Mind think because pattern has emerged its giving us an EDGE on that particular trade and we have no way of knowing it but over a series of trade it will show the effect.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24393 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24505 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 24555 Tgt 24615, 24680 and 24735 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 24475 Tgt 24416, 24355 and 24256 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

Leave a Reply