Bank Nifty RBI Policy and 10 Aug Weekly Expiry Analysis

By | August 9, 2023 9:15 pm

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Bearish approach in the Bank Nifty Index Futures market by Shorting 8833 contracts worth 2923  crores, resulting in a decrease  of 2923 contracts in the Net Open Interest.

As Discussed in Last Analysis

Bank Nifty has formed the third higher high and higher low on the daily chart, and the price has closed just at the level of the Outside Bar that was formed on August 3rd. For Bulls to maintain control, a close above 45100 is crucial. Failure to achieve this could lead Bears to drive the price back down towards 44500.

Gann’s emphasis on the number 3 is noteworthy, and if today’s high isn’t breached and considering the astrological observation mentioned in Bayer Rule 27, which indicates that significant tops and major bottoms can occur when Mercury’s speed in Geocentric longitude is at 59 minutes or 1 degree 58 minutes, there is a possibility of a decline in Bank Nifty if the closing price remains below 45100.

Bank  Nifty saw a dip today based on our yesterday analysis and fall stopped at 50 SMA, and we saw a decent recovery in 2 half of the session. TOmmrow we have RBI Policy and Bank Nifty will be completing 99 Days from 16 March Low so if Price is unable to close above 45000 we can see a revisit of 44500 Low. Todays rally was more of short covering. Mercury Trine Jupiter aspect formed today so above 45000 Bulls will have upper hand  towards 45170/45378.


Bank Nifty BUlls need to move above 45011 for a move towards 45130/45248/45367 Below 44773 can see a follow towards 44655/44536/44417– 2 target done PLan remains the same going in policy


Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 9:17,11:50,12:52,2:34  How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Bank Nifty June  Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 16.7 lakh, liquidation of 0.96  lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a covering of LONG positions today.

Bank Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 5:7 and Bank  Nifty Rollover Cost is @46143 and Rollover is at 70.3%

BANk Nifty  has broken its 20 SMA support and heading towards 50 SMA @44676 till below 45378

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Bank Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Bank Nifty may follow a path of 43444-44634-45923 . This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Bank Nifty moves through these levels. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.  Price is near 44634

According to the Bank Nifty options chain, the call side has the highest open interest (OI) at the 45000 strike, followed by the 45200 strike. On the put side, the 44700 strike has the highest OI, followed by the 44500 strike.This indicates that market participants anticipate Bank Nifty to stay within the 44500-45000 range.

The Bank Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 44900 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.91. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. PCR is on extreme end suggesting we can see sharp reversal .

Years of practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enable the trader to act on the instant when the unexpected happens as well as when the expected comes to pass.

For Positional Traders, The Bank Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 45319 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 44870, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 44900  Tgt 45008, 45111 and 45212 (Bank Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 44796  Tgt 44671, 44512 and 44365  (Bank Nifty Spot Levels)

Upper End of Expiry : 45052

Lower End of Expiry : 44671

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

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