Nifty Monthly Expiry Analysis

FII sold 17.2 K contract of Index Future worth 1572 cores, Net OI has increased by 1.4 K contract 7.9 K Long contract were covered by FII and 9.3 K Shorts were added by FII. Net FII Long Short ratio at 0.966 so FII used fall to exit longs and enter shorts.

As discussed in Last Analysis Tommrow is important reversal date as per vedic astrology so watch out for first 15 mins high and low to ride the trend. Bulls need to move above 17775 for a move towards 17842/17909/17976. Bears will have chance below 17646 for a move towards17579/17513/17447. Nifty opened with gap down but as discussed first 15 mins high and low was important it broke the high and rallied on upside,alss formed inside bar candel As we have expiry tommrow and Half yearly closing also last hour should be volatile. Now Bulls need to move above 17741 for a move towards 17807/17874/17941. Bears will have chance below 17674 for a move towards 17608/17555.
Intraday time for reversal can be at 9:40/11:31/12:31/1:29/2:15/2:53 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

MAX Pain is at 17700 PCR at 0.88 ,PCR below 0.9 and above 1.3 lead to trending moves, and in between leads to range bound markets.

Nifty Sep Future Open Interest Volume is at 0.84 Cores with addition of 25.7 Lakh with increase in cost of carry suggesting SHORT positions were added today.

There is total OI of 8.2 Cores on the Call side and 6.4 Cores on the Put side. More OI on CALL side suggesting Bearish sentiment in market players. FII bought another 3k Cores of options in the today 12k Cr in last 2 trading session.

The Option Table data indicates decent support at 17650 and reasonable resistance at 17800.

Retailers have bought 266 K CE contracts and 196 K CE contracts were shorted by them on Put Side Retailers sold 202 K PE contracts and 196 K PE contracts were shorted by them suggesting having BULLISH outlook,On Flip Side FII bought 47.6 K CE contracts and 46.9 K CE were shorted by them, On Put side FII’s bought 66.3 K PE and 31.2 K PE were shorted by them suggesting they have a turned to Bearish Bias.

Will we have the NAV management for half yearly management ? Will global cues prevail up on us? “So, the violence might increase – and wild moves might start appearing – but I do not see a clear direction appearing to the market till we start trading on 04 Oct.

For Positional Traders Stay long till we are holding Trend Change Level 17370 and stay short below it. That will help you stay on the side of Institutions and which has a greater risk-reward ratio. For Intraday Traders 17728 will act as a Intraday Trend Change Level.