Nifty and Bank Nifty Future Trading strategy before crucial RBI Policy

By | January 28, 2013 7:41 pm


1. FIIs sold 1730 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 36.20 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 29936 contracts.

2. As CNX Nifty Future was up by 3  points with Open Interest in Index Futures increasing by 29936 so FIIs created fresh long  in Nifty and Bank Nifty. Today we moved above trend changer level of 12734 of Bank Nifty and FII again created longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty future.

3. NS closed at 6075  after making high of 6088 and low of 6063.Nifty has formed a Doji candlestick pattern and a NR7 day today which signify explosive move is there tommrow with range expansion. RBI Policy will be declared at 11 AM tommrow and 25 BPS is already factored in by market.Any Surprises should result in follow up move with break of 6100 NS or breakdown of 6000. Retail traders are advised not to take any trade before 11:30 Am else volatility if it goes against you can unnecessary results in looses.Protection of capital is more important than profits.



4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 6098 and 6120  which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 6061 and 6014.Trend is Sell on Rise till 6100 is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty Future January Open Interest Volume is at 1.08 cores with liquidation of 6.9 lakh in Open Interest, Short covering in shorts  in Nifty future.Cost of Carry of Nifty Future increased to 6.71 with fall in OI suggesting profit booking IN SHORTS.Rollovers have started in Nifty Future and 7 lakhs got rollovered to Feb Series and 12 lakhs of fresh addition, as market participants are expecting a rate cut which will further fuel rally in Nifty.


6. Total Future & Option trading volume at 1.20 lakh Cores with total contract traded  at 1.29 lakh, PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 0.97  and VIX at 15.17.VIX has increased further increasing Option premium ahead of eventful session of RBI Policy

7. 6200 Call Option is having highest Open Interest of 92  lakhs with liquidation of 2.8 lakhs in Open Interest, 6100 Nifty CE  is having second highest OI at 72 lakh  addition of 5.1 lakhs in OI,with Option premium at Rs 29 short got added  in 6100 CE ,6000 CE saw liquidation of 2.0 lakhs in OI  .5700-6300 Call Options liquidated just  0.24 lakhs in OI. Bulls further make there ground stronger today.

8. 6000 Put Option is having highest  Open Interest of 86 lakhs with addition of 1 lakhs in OI so base building strike price has moved to 6000.6100 Put Option added  6.2 lakhs with OI at 38.1 lakhs so bulls are getting aggressive in 6100 PE so as to have expiry above 6100  .5700-6300 Put Options added 4.5 lakhs in OI.

9. FIIs buying in Equity in tune of 783 cores and DII sold 864 cores in cash segment,INR closed at 53.9 Live INR rate @ has bought 19304 cores in cash and DII sold 14365 cores.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 6074(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 6030 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand). Bank Nifty Future Trend Changer Level 12735.

Buy above 6083 Tgt 6101,6121 and 6147

Sell below 6061 Tgt 6050,6033,6015,6000(Nifty Spot Levels)

Traders who use Pivot and Camarilla can use the following 2 sites for Hourly values and EOD values

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