The following week we expected to be a trending week but again turned out to be a volatile week with daily range of Nifty of almost 100 points. We have march Expiry,Weekly and Monthly closing in the coming week which make in interesting both in term of data analysis and trading.
Lets see how technical are looking for the coming week.
Nifty Hourly Chart
Hourly charts all gaps are filled till 5200 and 50 SMA@5307 proving a resistance for the current upmove which started on Friday.Close above 5320 will make the trend bullish for coming week as shown with trendline convergence
Nifty Daily Chart
Symmetrical triangle formation on daily charts. Symmetrical triangle are continuation pattern and trend continues once the consolidation is over.Pattern become invalid on close below 5205. Breakout come above 5445.
Nifty broke the 50 SMA on Thursday but closed above it on Friday which signifies strong hands are buying at bottom. Golden Cross is still valid till it do not break the swing low of 5171.
As seen from the above chart 2012 looks bullish and base formation is going on. Nifty is still trading above the 14 months of breakout zone above 5130. Trendline resistance has come down to 5130.
We had a breakout above 5170 and now we are having the much required consolidation which would be healthy for further upmove of market.
Looks like till 5077 is not broken on closing basis Nifty bullish trend is intact and investor should look for buying in dips the mid and large caps stocks.
Nifty Weekly Chart
50 SMA on Weekly charts @5227 has been protected on closing basis. Breaking 50 SMA on closing basis will be a bearish signal. As seen in above chart 50 SMA act as a potential resistance and support in both uptrend and downtrend. So 5227 act as important level for next week.
Nifty has closed 5 Week in red,with a WoW loss of 0.7%. If we do data analysis its been clear Nifty is falling on declining volumes also the fall has been slow and with no momentum. March is generally know as volatile month as its quiet news driven. This whole month is spent in trading range of 5171-5499 with volatile moves both on upside and downside.
As pointed in above chart we are near supply zone and Dips should be bought into with a SL of 5171. Structure on Weekly charts looks bullish till 5217 is not broken on a closing basis.
Nifty Monthly Chart
March closing is quarter end closing,window dressing and NAV prop up are the buzzword most of traders and analyst talks about. Look at above chart closely Candles marked with BLUE circle and March monthly candles. From past 3 years Nifty has closed march with gain of 3-9%.
So what could be the fate of this March ending. DII were net buyers on Friday in cash basically meaning game has started. So expecting the close March expiry on a positive note looking at above data. As of till date March month Nifty is down 2% .
Nifty Trend Deciding Level:5320
Nifty Resistance:5385,5445,5483 and 5530
Nifty Support:5234,5205,5170,5130 and 5077
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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Dear mr B ( i always recollect you by this name ) 🙂
I m a reader of yr post on daily basis , and as confusious has once said the best thing about life is not the destination but the journey involved in reaching there , and you are living upto it , mr b this world do not grow on perfect people but by all novice who thrive to become perfectionist ,and i personely belive a happy man is the one who knows from heart that he is novice and try to learn always , im really mesmerised by this quality analysis post keep it up and with your fii data thingi do add averages of weekly monthly and not to mention daliy also , mr b we will not break the 5177 as this is wave 5 stop loss so lets be long then after it lets see and try to live lines of the legend mr livemore the there is never a bullish or bearish side, rather a right side , see u in market ,take care 🙂
Dear Sir,
Thanks for your kind word, Wishing you all a profitable trading week ahead.
Rgds,
Bramesh
Great job
Bramesh can you read all your post of last week and do your self analysis that none of the days ( 1day up more than 1 % , other day down more than 2 % and again on friday up 0.9 % ) you were able to ready the market in your analysis.
Again this week you are confusing traders with you wrong statements. Now you have drasticlaly changeed your stand from leap year analysis which you have put strong in Dec last and are now betting strongly that ” 2012 LOOKS BULLISH AND BASE FORMATION GOING ON ” .
Either you have failed miserably in trading and now you are putting your failed analysis for others to start following you so that you can recover some of your trading losses by giving tips.
Or you get piad similarly by analyst coming on CNBC AWAZ and ZEE bussiness where broking houses and indidual company pay them for creating news in favour of them.
You need to do your self analyis of your post. Rest if up to you . If you are really true you will certainly note my observations and will take care of them in future while posting analysis.
Dear Soniaji,
A good trader accepts full responsibility for the outcome of every trade. You cannot blame others for taking your money. You have to improve your trading plans and methods of money management. It will take time, and it will take discipline and above all its takes to bow down your EGO towards market. Which i think you lack a lot.
Instead of saying me to do a self analysis please prop within yourself and try to improve yourself on trading psychological aspect.
A good trader requires 3 M Mind,Method and Money Management. Do an introspection check whether you are lacking instead pointing fingers on other saying you are not good at trading.
Try to “MIND YOUR OWN BUSINESS”.
If you do not like my analysis you can ignore it and move ahead.
Rgds,
Bramesh
thanks u sir , 4 the valuable information,
Great job, please continue this, we are very much thankful to you for guiding us with the Technical analysis, i have seen now a days i am doing the trading with more confidence after seeing your valuble informations. Please keep it up. Thanks once again.
excellent technicals