FII F&O Data analysis for 21 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 20  Dec.

 

1. FII bought  12975  Contracts in NF worth 290 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing by  15933 contracts.

2. As NF  was  down by 70  points  with Open Interest decrease by  FII . Fall in OI with fall  in price means shorts were covered by FII.

3. Capitulation in banking stocks continued and Bank Nifty is down 4.6% in first 2 days of the week.

4. Today fall has an important observation  Fall was lacking volumes total contract traded were 461,427 which were the lowest volumes in past 8 trading session which means as NF made a new 52 week low @4938 still the sellers were not interested in  shorting the index.

5. Nifty made a new 52 Week low but VIX showed a marginal decline today@30.53  instead of rising which is again sign of lack of market participants for a fresh shorting.

6. Put Premium also declined in last hour of fall which means put writers are confident on furthur falls will be limited or we may see a sharp and swift rally.

7. NF total OI was at 1.94  cores with 7.5lakh reduction ie. almost 4%   means  traders who took long bet on anticiaption of a bounce back liquidated there position also no fresh shorts have been intiated.

5. Market will never move in same direction it will test the patience move in direction oppsoite to most of traders anticiapte test your confidence on your system and in process remove out the weak hands of the system.

6. In Equity cash segment FII sold 526 cores  whereas DII were buyers of  186 cores.

7. As per Options data  5100 CE has highest OI of 79 lakhs and 5000 CE aand 4500 PE has highest OI of 72 Lakhs.

8. Liquidation was seen in 4700 PE of 6.5  and 4600 PE of 6.3 lakhs writers were running for cover in both  4700 and 4600 PE.

9.  FII were sellers worth 483 cores in Index options so were they seller in 4300 PE as it added 3.2 Lakhs and 4800 CE 8.7 Lakhs.

10. Most of traders buy deep OTM puts in anticipation of making windfall gains which happens once in BLUE MOON but in that process many trdaers not having a proper risk mangment tend to loose most of there trading capitals thats why i am never a big fan of buying options, try to wrtie them or aviod them completley as capital saved is capital earned.

11. FII SAR level  comes at 4444,Keep an eye on this level tomorrow.

12. Market sentiments have turned overtly bearish and Nifty making low each passing day. There will be sharp and swift rally in a single day looking at fresh addition in 4800 CE. Bear markets rallies will be sharp and swift,today we got indications with price falling but volumes are not supporting.

13. Till Nifty do not close above 4756 stick with shorts,Close above 4756 will make bearsin pain and Santa Rally can materialize.

14. On Upside above above 4639 Nifty can move towards 4659 and 4704,4724 and 4748.

15. On dowside below 4531 Nifty target comes at 4504 ,4464 and 4430 (Nifty Spot Level)

 

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

 

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