Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 19 Dec.
1. FII sold 44637 Contracts in NF worth 1006 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing by 5829 contracts.
2. As NF was down by 21 points with Open Interest increase by FII . Rise in OI with fall in price means shorts were taken.
3. As bank stocks capitulate today with RBI raising concerns of 9 Lakh cores of Bad NPA and Yesterday’s Food Security Bill which got clearance from the Centre added to the negative sentiment. Goverment has a huge deficit rotting in its backyard. “The economy and the monetary system will get impacted and get stressed out completely.
4. NF total OI was at 2.01 cores with 13 lakh reduction ie. almost 7% means traders who took long bet on friday evening in anticiaption of a bounce back liquidated there position.
5. Market will never move in same direction it will test the patience move in direction oppsoite to most of traders anticiapte test your confidence on your system and in process remove out the weak hands of the system.
6. In Equity cash segment FII sold 460 cores whereas DII were buyers of meagre 18 cores.
7. As per Options data 5100 CE has highest OI of 79 lakhs and 5000 CE also adding 72 lakhs means 5000 will be ceiling for market for december expiry and 4500 PE has highest OI of 72 Lakhs.
8. Liquidation was seen in 4700 PE of 10 lakhs writers were running for cover in 4700 PE
9. Speculative money had entered in deep OTM puts 4200 PE adding 6 .2 Lakhs,4400 PE adding 14 Lakhs and 4000 PE adding 1 lakh. Why i say its as speculative becaus FII were sellers woth 53 cores in Index options.
10. Most of traders buy deep OTM puts in anticipation of making windfall gains which happens once in BLUE MOON but in that process many trdaers not having a proper risk mangment tend to loose most of there trading capitals thats why i am never a big fan of buying options, try to wrtie them or aviod them completley as capital saved is capital earned.
11. FII SAR level comes at 4514,Keep an eye on this level tomorrow.
12. Close below 4756 this week will lead to fall till 4640 and 4536 — This is what i said on 15 Dec so we have almost done to 4536 making a low of 4560 now a relief rally till break down point of 4720 which should be used to create fresh shorts.
13. Till Nifty do not close above 4756 stick with shorts,Close above 4756 will make bearsin pain and Santa Rally can materialize.
14. On Upside above above 4639 Nifty can move towards 4659 and 4704.
15. On dowside below 4551 Nifty target comes at 4530,4504 and 4470 (Nifty Spot Level)
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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