Another Fry day with Nifty stuck in range, Opened Gap up consolidated in 20 points range and finally gave up all gains and filled the gap and closed for 4 days in a row in red. Tomorrow being 5 day which is a Fibo number,hence probability of a green closing have increased.This move in Nifty very well go by our analysis stating July being a month of consolidation.Markets will take further cues from Ben Bernanke testimony today.
1. FII bought 5623 Contracts of NF ,worth 129 cores with net OI increasing by 17453 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 8 points and OI has increased by 17452 contracts means FII have covered partial shorts near 5200-5190 NF. Data also suggests FII have been creating longs from past 2 trading sessions.
3. NS made a low of 5182 and finally brooked the much anticipated 5189 levels, Now if one observe the price action of Nifty for July Nifty gives an impression it is filling the gap but it turns out to be a whipsaw move, We started gap filling at 5260 made a high of 5267 and turned back, On similar grounds today broke 5189 made a swift low of 5182 and closed at 5193. So looking at the price history will not be surprised a move on Upside towards 5250-70 nifty by tomorrow.
4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5238 which needs to be watched closely tomorrow,Support now exists at 5150 if 5180 gets taken out.
5. Nifty June OI is at 2.43 cores with an fresh addition of 3.7 Lakh in OI, As Nifty was down by 8 points with rise in OI shorts were added by retailers and HNI
6. Total F&O turnover was 1.08 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.00 lakh. No major trading interest by market participants.
7. 5300 CE saw an addition of 9.3 lakhs and total OI stands at 95 lakhs having highest OI, So 5300 is an immediate upper ceiling.Even though NS closed below 5200, 5200 CE added 3.7 lakhs in OI which suggests Bulls are still confident of saving 5200.
8. On Put side 5000 PE is having highest OI of 86 lakhs with 2 lakhs fresh addition meaning 5000 is current base for market,Liquidation of 7 lakhs was seen in 5000-5300 PE .5100 is the immediate support for market based on Options data.PCR has declined to 0.79 which is lowest reading in past 8 months which suggests some good moves are on the cards by this week.
9.FII bought 475 cores and DII sold 266 cores in cash segment.DII has sold 4169 cores and Retailers,HNI have sold 3523 cores to FII, so the foreign funds are more bullish on India than our Indian MF and traders. INR closed at 55.18 Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/)
10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5181, Trend Changer at 5291 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
Buy above 5204 Tgt 5227,5247 and 5267
Sell below 5170 Tgt 5150,5130 and 5095 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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Hello Sir,
How did you identify that FII have covered partial shorts near 5200? Could you please explain this?
Thanks and Regards,
Ravindra
Dear Sir,
This observation is based on FII FnO data sheet, which is part of our intraday trading system.
Rgds,
Bramesh
Sir, how did u calculate DIIs and HNIs sold 4169 and 3523 crores respectively to FIIs in point number 9? How did you calculate that?
Dear Sir,
Just Add the FII amount for July and add the DII amount July you will get the required number.
Rgds,
Bramesh