FIIs Maintain Slightly Bearish Stance in Nifty Futures – May 14, 2024
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a mildly bearish position in the Nifty Index Futures segment by shorting 386 contracts worth ₹71 crore. While the notional value is limited, a net open interest increase of 1,252 contracts suggests fresh position-building, indicating caution near critical resistance levels.
FII Activity Breakdown:
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✔ Longs Added: 1,798 contracts
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✔ Shorts Added: 101 contracts
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Net OI Change: +1,252 contracts
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FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.62
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Current Positioning: 38% Long : 62% Short
Interpretation:
Despite long additions, the net bias remains bearish. FIIs are not aggressively shorting, but the long-to-short ratio indicates continued caution, possibly anticipating consolidation near 24,700–24,729 resistance.
Client Behavior:
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✔ Longs Covered: 8,493 contracts
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✔ Shorts Covered: 2,185 contracts
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Client Long-to-Short Ratio: 1.12
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Positioning: 53% Long : 47% Short
Interpretation:
Clients are reducing exposure across both sides, signaling neutrality or preparation for volatility ahead of expiry or macro events.
Strategic Insight:
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FIIs: Adding to both sides but staying net short — suggesting defensive positioning.
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Clients: Reducing longs more than shorts — early signs of profit-booking after the rally.
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Watch the 24,700–24,729 resistance zone — a breakout or failure there will likely define the next move.
NIFTY Options Analysis: 15 May 2025 Nifty Weekly Expiry Levels
Nifty witnessed a mild decline today after Monday’s powerful rally. The index retraced approximately 25% of the previous session’s gains, indicating a running correction — a healthy pause within an ongoing uptrend.
Price action has settled right around the psychological level of 24500, while critically respecting the Gann support level of 24512.
Key Technical Insight:
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Gann Support Level: 24512-24555
→ Holding above this zone keeps the bullish structure intact. -
Correction Type: Running correction
→ Typically followed by continuation in the prevailing trend (in this case, up).
Macro Boost – Inflation Data:
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India’s Retail Inflation Drops to 3.16% (6-Year Low)
→ Eases pressure on the RBI, raising expectations of liquidity stability and maintaining a favorable backdrop for banks.
→ Sentimentally positive for Nifty and interest-rate sensitive sectors.
Outlook & Strategy:
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✅ Bullish Bias Maintains:
As long as price sustains above 24555, the uptrend remains active with potential to retest or break the 25000 -
Immediate Target: All-time high zone above 24729
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⚠️ Invalidation Level: Breakdown below 24389 could trigger a deeper retracement toward 24222-24108
Nifty has closed precisely at the intersection of two key Gann angles, creating a high-probability price-time confluence zone. Given it’s also weekly expiry, markets are primed for a volatile last-hour move, with strong potential for a bullish breakout if 24,500 is protected.
Key Observations:
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Gann Confluence Zone:
Price is respecting a major intersection of two Gann angles — a classic reversal or acceleration zone. -
Critical Support:
24,500 → Holding this intraday pivot keeps bullish momentum intact. -
Upside Targets:
24,777 – 24,850 → Watch for fast moves into this zone if 24,500 holds through expiry. -
Breadth Improving:
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Mid & Small Caps showing recovery
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IT Index is offering leadership support
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Nifty is trading well above its 200-DMA, adding to technical strength
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Institutional Flow Support:
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✅ FII and DII net buyers in the cash market — providing additional confidence for positional traders and expiry bulls.
Trading Strategy:
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Dips toward 24,389 (previous Gann level) are likely to be bought aggressively.
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Intraday traders should watch 24,500 as the make-or-break line — it could trigger short covering and fresh buying into the closing bell.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24620 for a move towards 24774/24928 Bears will get active below 24478 for a move towards 24311/24156 — Closed above 24620 waiting for 24774
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:45,11:49,12:33,01:43,02:11,02:38 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.26 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 0.24 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 38:12 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @24321 closed above it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :24211 closed above it
Nifty has closed Above its 200 SMA @ 24137 Trend is Buy on Dips till above 24389
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24550 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.75 .Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24800 strike, followed by 25000 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24400 strike, followed by 24300 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24300-24800 levels.
Retail & FII Options Activity – May 14, 2024
Understanding positioning behavior in options can reveal shifts in market sentiment, especially near key technical or event-based inflection points.
Retail Activity Snapshot:
Call Options:
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Added: 162K contracts
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Shorted: 259K contracts
Put Options:
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Added: 305K contracts
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Added: 257K contracts
Interpretation:
Retail is aggressively building put positions and shorting calls, indicating a clear bearish to protective stance. The dual addition in puts (likely both buying and writing) may reflect hedging and volatility plays, with increasing caution after the recent upmove.
FII Activity Snapshot:
Call Options:
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Covered: 8.8K contracts
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Covered: 22K contracts
Put Options:
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Covered: 11.6K contracts
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Shorted: 10.7K contracts
Interpretation:
FIIs are unwinding both call and put exposure, suggesting a volatility compression expectation or positioning shift toward more delta-neutral or expiry-specific strategies (e.g., straddles, condors). The shorting of puts hints at mild bullish bias or support expectations at lower levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 931 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 316 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23037-23722-24408-25134 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Those who succeed big at anything all have the same attitude: You keep going until it happens or you die trying. Quitting is not an option.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24448. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24777, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Expiry Range
Upper End of Expiry : 24923
Lower End of Expiry : 24477
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 24690 Tgt 24729, 24777 and 24824 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 24651 Tgt 24610, 24555 and 24500 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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