FIIs Maintain Bullish Stance in Nifty Futures – April 28, 2024
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to reflect a bullish outlook in the Nifty Index Futures segment, buying 9,427 contracts worth ₹1,723 crore. The move was backed by a net open interest (OI) increase of 7,675 contracts, signaling fresh long positions being built into the May series.
FII Activity Breakdown:
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✔ Added Longs: 9,283 contracts
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✔ Covered Shorts: 3,617 contracts
FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.73
Positioning: 42% Long : 58% Short
✅ Interpretation:
FIIs are aggressively adding long positions and reducing shorts, indicating growing confidence in further upside for the index. The rise in OI alongside long additions reflects fresh bullish conviction rather than mere short covering.
Client Activity Overview:
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✔ Added Longs: 5,039 contracts
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✔ Added Shorts: 14,469 contracts
Client Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.81
Positioning: 45% Long : 55% Short
✅ Interpretation:
Clients have increased exposure on both sides but with higher short additions, suggesting hedging activity and a more cautious stance going into the monthly and financial year-end close.
Trading Consistency & Discipline: Key to Long-Term Success
Key Astro Events to Watch
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New Moon
→ Associated with emotional extremes and market turning points. -
Lunar Eclipse Degree Activation
→ Often triggers sharp directional moves near important technical levels. -
♀ Venus at Extreme Declination
→ A rare event that has historically aligned with reversals in financial markets. -
♀ Venus Conjunct ♄ Saturn
→ Influences sectors tied to banking, finance, debt, and structure, amplifying market sensitivity.
Nifty Technical Outlook
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After forming a Hammer candle on Wednesday, Nifty created an Inside Bar today — signaling consolidation and a potential breakout setup.
Breakdown Trigger:
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Below 24,108
→ May lead to a swift decline toward the gap-fill zone of 23,851–23,900
✅ Bullish Continuation Trigger:
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Above 24,389
→ A weekly close above this level could open the path toward 24,533+, extending the current rally.
⚠️ Geopolitical Risk & Risk Management
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Rising border tensions add to the uncertainty and increase the probability of a gap-down open.
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Carrying overnight longs unhedged may expose traders to unexpected downside risk.
️ Strategic Protection:
Consider buying protective Puts to hedge overnight exposure ahead of:
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A volatile astro date
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The weekly close
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Escalating geopolitical tensions
✅ Trading Strategy Checklist
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Watch the first 15-minute high and low → Key to capturing intraday direction
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Tighten stop-losses and stay disciplined with position sizing
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Avoid chasing momentum blindly — wait for confirmed breakouts
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Use hedged positions or spreads if holding through the weekend
Nifty staged a strong comeback, erasing Friday’s fall, as the New Moon — a classic astro signal — triggered fresh bullish momentum. Price found support at the 1×2 Gann angle, a key technical level, and moved sharply higher, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend.
Key Highlights:
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Technical Structure:
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Nifty has formed an Inside Bar, indicating a potential breakout setup for tomorrow.
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The rally was led by Banking stocks and Reliance Industries, a powerful combination.
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Sentiment Insight:
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As the old saying in Dalal Street goes:
“When Reliance moves, never short the market.” -
Reliance leading the rally adds credibility to the bullish momentum.
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Liquidity Boost:
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RBI’s ₹1.25 lakh crore OMO liquidity injection announcement is a major positive, ensuring ample liquidity to support equities moving into May.
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Key Levels to Watch:
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✅ Bullish Trigger:
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Above 24,389 → A breakout above this can lead to a quick move toward 24,505–24,656.
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⚠️ Resistance Behavior:
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Price has been knocking repeatedly at resistance, making it weaker over time — typically a bullish sign if follow-through happens.
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Support Zone:
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Immediate support remains around 24,200–24,240 based on Gann structure.
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Astro Alert: Venus Ingress Tomorrow
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Venus Ingress — movement into a new zodiac sign — is expected tomorrow.
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Historically, Venus Ingress events often enhance market volatility and can fuel breakout moves, especially when aligned with technical setups like Inside Bars.
Strategic Outlook:
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Bulls have the momentum — look for a breakout above 24,389 for confirmation.
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Avoid aggressive shorts unless key supports break decisively.
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Intraday traders should closely monitor the first 15-minute high/low for trend confirmation.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24167 for a move towards 24478/24792 Bears will get active below 23857 for a move towards 23549/23243 — Waiting for 24478/24792
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:03,10:58,12:35,01:58 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.26lakh cr , witnessing addition of 0.89 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 39:11 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @24321 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23521 closed above it
Nifty has closed Above its 200 SMA @ 24051 Trend is Buy on Dips till above 24200
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24200 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 1.17.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24400 strike, followed by 24500 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24200 strike, followed by 24100 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24200-24500 levels.
Options Market Activity Overview – April 26, 2024
♂️ Retail Investor Activity
Call Options:
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Added: 58.7K contracts
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Shorted: 105K contracts
Put Options:
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Added: 692K contracts
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Shorted: 566K contracts
✅ Interpretation:
Retail traders are showing a heavier build-up on the Put side, suggesting hedging activity or preparation for volatility and potential downside protection.
The net shorting of Calls also indicates caution at higher levels, expecting possible consolidation or minor corrections.
FII Options Activity
Call Options:
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Added: 42K contracts
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Shorted: 33K contracts
Put Options:
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Added: 185K contracts
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Shorted: 229K contracts
✅ Interpretation:
FIIs maintained a neutral to slightly bullish bias:
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Light addition in Calls and higher Put activity reflects a hedged stance.
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More shorting of Puts than adding shows optimism — FIIs expecting downside protection may not be heavily needed, or anticipating consolidation rather than sharp drops.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 2474 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2817 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23037-23722-24408-25134 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Trading is not about being right—it’s about managing risk. Doubling down is the arrogance of certainty meeting the brutality of randomness. The market doesn’t care about your conviction; it only respects survival.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24322. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24377 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 24385 Tgt 24424, 24484 and 24529 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 24285 Tgt 24245, 24205 and 24166 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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