Nifty Astro-Technical Setup

FIIs Maintain Bullish Stance in Nifty Futures – April 25, 2024

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to reflect a bullish bias in the Nifty Index Futures segment during the monthly expiry session. While the net buying was marginal at 79 contracts worth ₹5.36 crore, the key highlight was the massive drop in open interest (OI) — down by 41,394 contracts, largely driven by rollovers into the May series.

FII Activity Breakdown

✔ Longs Covered: 13,396 contracts
✔ Shorts Covered: 59,327 contracts

FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.69
Positioning: 41% Long : 59% Short

✅ Interpretation:
The heavy short covering by FIIs indicates bulls are retaining control, while the reduction in longs is typical of expiry-related squaring off. The rising long-to-short ratio signals a shift away from extreme bearishness toward a more balanced or bullish posture going into May.

Client Activity Snapshot

✔ Longs Covered: 28,451 contracts
✔ Shorts Covered: 4,604 contracts

Client Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.83
Positioning: 46% Long : 54% Short

✅ Interpretation:
Clients also reduced exposure on both sides, with more long unwinding, suggesting a cautious outlook post expiry. Their slightly bearish tilt reflects hesitation at higher levels, possibly due to earnings and geopolitical uncertainty.

Market Implication & Outlook

- FIIs are showing signs of reduced bearish conviction, with aggressive short covering and increasing long exposure in relative terms.
- May series opens with a cleaner slate, and early OI build-up will reveal whether this bullish rollover continues.
- Watch key levels: A sustained move above 24,389 could trigger fresh momentum, while weakness below 24,100 may invite profit booking.

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As Discussed in Last Analysis

Nifty has shown signs of indecision and exhaustion, forming a Doji on Tuesday followed by a Hammer today, both classic candlestick signals hinting at potential reversal or pause in trend. With monthly expiry set for tomorrow, traders should prepare for heightened volatility.

Expiry Context & Price Action

Previous Expiry (March): Closed at 23,591
Current Position: Up 737 points from the last expiry — strong momentum in favor of the bulls
March and April: Both monthly expiries have favored bulls, squeezing short positions

However, with a 9-day winning streak and astro-sensitive date (April 25) coinciding with expiry, the market is ripe for profit booking or a short-term pullback.

Tomorrow is a high-impact astro date, with multiple celestial events aligning, which historically correlates with sharp market movements and potential trend reversals — especially in sensitive indices like Nifty.

Key Astro Events to Watch

New Moon
→ Associated with emotional extremes and market turning points.
Lunar Eclipse Degree Activation
→ Often triggers sharp directional moves near important technical levels.
♀ Venus at Extreme Declination
→ A rare event that has historically aligned with reversals in financial markets.
♀ Venus Conjunct ♄ Saturn
→ Influences sectors tied to banking, finance, debt, and structure, amplifying market sensitivity.

Nifty Technical Outlook

After forming a Hammer candle on Wednesday, Nifty created an Inside Bar today — signaling consolidation and a potential breakout setup.

Breakdown Trigger:

Below 24,108
→ May lead to a swift decline toward the gap-fill zone of 23,851–23,900

✅ Bullish Continuation Trigger:

Above 24,389
→ A weekly close above this level could open the path toward 24,533+, extending the current rally.

⚠️ Geopolitical Risk & Risk Management

Rising border tensions add to the uncertainty and increase the probability of a gap-down open.
Carrying overnight longs unhedged may expose traders to unexpected downside risk.

️ Strategic Protection:
Consider buying protective Puts to hedge overnight exposure ahead of:

A volatile astro date
The weekly close
Escalating geopolitical tensions

✅ Trading Strategy Checklist

Watch the first 15-minute high and low → Key to capturing intraday direction
Tighten stop-losses and stay disciplined with position sizing
Avoid chasing momentum blindly — wait for confirmed breakouts
Use hedged positions or spreads if holding through the weekend

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24167 for a move towards 24478/24792 Bears will get active below 23857 for a move towards 23549/23243

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:27,10:55,12:11,01:20,02:41 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.15 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 24 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of LONG positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 20:30 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @24321 closed below it.

Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23521 closed above it

Nifty has closed Above its 200 SMA @ 24051 Trend is Buy on Dips till above 24108

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24200 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.79 .Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24400 strike, followed by 24500 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24200 strike, followed by 24100 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24000-24400 levels.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 8250 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) sold 534 cr.FII have bought 29514 in last 7 trading session.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23037-23722-24408-25134 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.

It is very difficult for the mind to just watch the market unfold. Our minds, egos, left hemispheres, must get into the act no matter now many times they have been proven to be painfully incapable of doing the job consistently.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24405. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24405 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 24324 Tgt 24375, 24412 and 24456 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 24255 Tgt 24225, 24192 and 24138(Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

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