FIIs Turn Cautious – April 21, 2024
Fresh Shorts in Bank Nifty Futures Signal Caution After Strong Rally
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net sellers in the Bank Nifty index futures, signaling a shift in sentiment after a strong 4-day rally. While the sell value is modest, the spike in open interest (OI) tells a deeper story.
Key Data Highlights:
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Contracts Sold: 1,753
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Notional Value: ₹286 crore
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Net Open Interest (OI) Change: +12,505 contracts
Interpretation:
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The increase in OI alongside selling clearly indicates fresh short positions — not just profit booking or unwinding of longs.
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This points to growing caution among FIIs, potentially anticipating a pause or pullback after the recent sharp upside move.
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The timing also coincides with astro-sensitive events, including Mars and Sun sign changes, which often trigger volatility and trend shifts in markets.
Simple Trading Rules for Consistent Success – Master the Market
As Discussed in Last Analysis
Bank Nifty delivered a strong rally, exactly as anticipated, and we were able to capture the move above the key Gann level of 52,348 — a perfect confluence of Gann geometry and astro time cycles. Once again, respecting the trend with the right levels proved to be the most effective strategy.
Current Market Snapshot
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Bank Nifty is up 4% for the week, showing solid momentum.
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Now just ~1,300 points away from its all-time high, bulls are eyeing a potential breakout before the April expiry.
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Today: Nifty Weekly Expiry + Weekly Close
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Tomorrow: Trading Holiday
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Weekend Astro Events: Mars and Sun Sign Change – often marks trend shifts or acceleration in momentum.
Key Level to Watch
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Support Zone: 53,350 → As long as this level is held on a closing basis, bulls remain in control. -
Upside Target: All-Time High Zone around 54,650+ → Possible test before April expiry if current trend sustains.
Strategy Note
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Carry overnight positions with hedges, especially with the astro-sensitive weekend ahead.
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Be alert for gap openings or reversals on Monday due to planetary shifts.
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Intraday traders should continue to use first 15-minute range for capturing momentum post-holiday.
Bank Nifty rallied sharply to make a new all-time high, just as anticipated in our previous analysis based on Gann geometry and astro timing.
Since April 15, when Venus turned direct, Bank Nifty has gained 3,598 points, validating the power of combining Price, Time, and Event — when all three align, markets tend to make explosive moves.
Key Astro & Gann Signals Ahead
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Mars and Sun Sign Change this week → often associated with strong directional shifts.
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Bayer Rule 27:
“Big tops and big major bottoms are formed when Mercury’s speed in Geocentric longitude is 59 minutes or 1°58′.”
This rule is now active, signaling the possibility of a major move or reversal.
Key Levels to Watch (April 21 Range):
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High: 55,461
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Low: 54,674
Break of either side could lead to a move of 729 to 1,008 points in Bank Nifty.
Stay alert for a range breakout, which could define the next major leg.
Global Sentiment Check
While US markets are showing weakness, Asian markets — including India — are holding up. However:
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Dollar Index (DXY) is the key to watch:
A reversal from the 96–97 zone could trigger a correction in emerging markets, including India.
Final Trading Strategy:
Trade based on levels, time cycles, and confirmation.
Avoid trading on emotions or noise from global uncertainty.
When markets move fast, discipline in execution and exit is more important than prediction.
Bank Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 55417 for a move towards 55889/56363 Bears will get active below 54470 for a move towards 54014/53550
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:15,10:24,12:15,01:29,02:11 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Bank Nifty April Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 18.2 lakh, with liquidation of 2.5 lakh contracts. Additionally, the Increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a closuere of LONG positions today.
Bank Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 12:00 and Bank Nifty Rollover Cost is @52173 closed above it.
Bank Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :52348 closed above it.
Bank Nifty closed above 200 SMA @51000,Trend is Buy on Dips till above 54872
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Bank Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Bank Nifty may follow a path of 53707-55304-56734. This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Bank Nifty moves through these levels. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
According to the Bank Nifty options chain, the call side has the highest open interest (OI) at the 55500 strike, followed by the 56000 strike. On the put side, the 55000 strike has the highest OI, followed by the 54500 strike.This indicates that market participants anticipate Bank Nifty to stay within the 55000-56000 range.
The Bank Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 54000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 1.17. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. PCR is on extreme end suggesting we can see sharp reversal .
We must realize that the market defies logic. It has a logic all its own, and it wonít tell us in advance what its reaction to events will be. We can watch for clues and then react.
For Positional Traders, The Bank Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 54476. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 55152, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Intraday Levels for Bank Nifty:
Buy Above 55470 Tgt 55600, 55729 and 55900 ( Bank Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 55225 Tgt 55075, 54900 and 54729 (Bank Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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