FII Activity: Neutral Stance in Nifty Index Futures with Minimal Positioning Shift
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a neutral stance in the Nifty Index Futures market, buying 435 contracts worth ₹74 crore. This activity resulted in a net open interest increase of just 63 contracts, suggesting lack of aggressive directional positioning.
Breaking Down FII Activity
- FIIs added 1,845 long contracts, slightly increasing bullish exposure.
- FIIs covered 1,000 short contracts, reducing their bearish bets.
Client Behavior
- Clients added 2,046 long contracts, indicating some confidence in an uptrend.
- Clients added 333 short contracts, suggesting cautious hedging rather than aggressive bearish positioning.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs: Holding 17% long and 83% short positions → Still maintaining a strong bearish stance.
- Clients: Holding 71% long and 29% short positions → More optimistic about a potential rebound.
Nifty opened with a gap down as Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China came into effect. However, the gap was completely filled during the day, reinforcing strong buying interest at lower levels.
Key Astro & Gann Insights
✔ Mercury in Aries & Sun-Mercury Conjunction → Mercury plays a crucial role in Nifty’s short-term moves, making this an important turning point.
✔ Gann Number 21,962 → Marked as a critical support zone (highlighted by the yellow line in the chart).
✔ Price Compression Before a Big Move → Today’s range High: 22,105 | Low: 21,964 → A breakout from this range could trigger a 200-250 point move.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Breakout Above: 22,105 → Could lead to a rally towards 22,300–22,350.
Bearish Breakdown Below: 21,964 → Could trigger a fall towards 21,750–21,700.
As discussed, Nifty rallied strongly with the Mercury in Aries effect and Mercury’s close proximity to the Sun playing out in the market. Today’s Mercury-Jupiter conjunction further reinforced the bullish sentiment, with price bouncing exactly from the Gann level of 21,952, confirming the confluence of price and time cycles.
Key Levels to Watch for Expiry Day
Bullish Support Zone: 22,250–22,266 → Bulls must hold this range to sustain momentum.
Upside Targets for Expiry:
- 22,444 (first resistance)
- 22,500 (psychological level & key resistance)
Watch the video below for deeper insights into astro aspects:
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22364 for a move towards 22439/22513/22587. Bears will get active below 22216 for a move towards 22142/22067.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:36,11:34,01:22,02:06 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty March Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.78 lakh cr , witnessing Liquidation of 3.7 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the decrease in Cost of Carry implies that there was closure of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 45:05 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @22724 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :22194 closed above it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 22858 Trend has changed to Buy on Dips till above 22194
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22300 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.81.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22400 strike, followed by 22500 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22300 strike, followed by 22200 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22200-22500 levels.
Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights & Market Outlook
Analyzing retail and FII positioning in the options market provides valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movement. Here’s a breakdown of today’s data:
Retail Activity in Options Market
Retail traders displayed a bearish stance, with aggressive put buying and strong call selling.
Call Options:
- Sold 101K contracts, indicating expectations of resistance at higher levels.
- Covered 49.3K contracts, suggesting some profit booking in short calls.
Put Options:
- Added 513K contracts, signaling heavy downside hedging.
- Shorted 433K contracts, suggesting confidence in support levels holding.
Retail Takeaway:
Retail traders are bearish but also hedging, with heavy put buying but also put shorting, indicating mixed sentiment.
FII Activity in Options Market
FIIs leaned bullish but cautiously, adding more calls than puts while reducing downside exposure.
Call Options:
- Added 78.9K contracts, signaling bullish intent.
- Shorted 58.7K contracts, reinforcing resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 92.6K contracts, hedging against potential downside risks.
- Shorted 112K contracts, reducing their bearish exposure.
FII Takeaway:
FIIs are positioning for potential upside, with higher call additions and put shorting, indicating reduced bearish conviction.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 2895 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 3370 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22094-22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” – Mark Douglas
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 22371 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22385, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Expiry Range
Upper End of Expiry : 22507
Lower End of Expiry : 22185
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 22343 Tgt 22385, 22424 and 22484 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 22300 Tgt 22266, 22222 and 22166 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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