FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures with Fresh Short Positions
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a bearish stance in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively shorting 4,238 contracts worth ₹707 crore. This resulted in a net open interest increase of 5,570 contracts, signaling fresh short positions being built.
Breaking Down FII Activity
- FIIs added 3,048 long contracts, slightly increasing their bullish exposure.
- FIIs added 2,679 short contracts, reinforcing their bearish outlook.
Client Behavior
- Clients added 6,101 long contracts, suggesting confidence in an uptrend.
- Clients added 759 short contracts, showing a more cautious approach to downside risks.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs: Holding 17% long and 83% short positions → Still maintaining a strong bearish stance.
- Clients: Holding 71% long and 29% short positions → More optimistic about a potential rebound.
Market Outlook & Key Takeaways
✔ FIIs continue to add shorts, suggesting skepticism about upside momentum.
✔ Clients remain bullish, expecting a recovery or short-covering rally.
Nifty continues to hold its Gann angle support zone on the daily chart, forming an NR21 pattern, marking the smallest range in the last 21 trading sessions—a classic sign of price compression before a big breakout or breakdown.
Adding to the significance:
✔ Weekly Chart: Another red candle with an NR21 pattern, reinforcing a tight range and upcoming volatility expansion.
✔ Monthly Chart: 5 consecutive months of decline, showing sustained weakness last happened in 1996
✔ New Moon Today: Often marks a turning point in market sentiment.
✔ Mercury & Venus Sign Change Over the Weekend: Astro cycles shifting could trigger a strong directional move next week.
✔ With monthly closing today, expect strong positioning battles between bulls & bears.
✔ Watch for a decisive breakout from the 22,400–22,600 range to confirm the next major move.
✔ With Venus & Mercury changing signs over the weekend, expect heightened volatility next week.
✔ NR21 pattern suggests a strong trending move is imminent—stay prepared!
Final Thoughts: With price contraction, key astro shifts, and Gann support in play, a big move is brewing. Watch for a breakout or breakdown confirmation in the coming sessions!
Nifty opened with a gap down as Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China came into effect. However, the gap was completely filled during the day, reinforcing strong buying interest at lower levels.
Key Astro & Gann Insights
✔ Mercury in Aries & Sun-Mercury Conjunction → Mercury plays a crucial role in Nifty’s short-term moves, making this an important turning point.
✔ Gann Number 21,962 → Marked as a critical support zone (highlighted by the yellow line in the chart).
✔ Price Compression Before a Big Move → Today’s range High: 22,105 | Low: 21,964 → A breakout from this range could trigger a 200-250 point move.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Breakout Above: 22,105 → Could lead to a rally towards 22,300–22,350.
Bearish Breakdown Below: 21,964 → Could trigger a fall towards 21,750–21,700.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22112 for a move towards 22186/22261/22335. Bears will get active below 22038 for a move towards 21964/21888/21816.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:15,10:42,11:53,01:49,02:11 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty March Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.81 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 2.4 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 23:27 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @22724 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :22194 closed below it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 22928 Trend has changed to Sell on Rise till below 22300
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.71.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22100 strike, followed by 22300 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22000 strike, followed by 21900 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22000-22300 levels.
Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights & Market Outlook
Analyzing retail and FII positioning in the options market helps gauge market sentiment and potential price action. Here’s a breakdown of today’s activity:
Retail Activity in Options Market
Retail traders displayed a neutral-to-bearish stance, with heavy put activity and more call shorting than buying.
Call Options:
- Added 134K contracts, suggesting some bullish bets.
- Shorted 197K contracts, indicating expectations of resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 299K contracts, signaling strong downside hedging.
- Shorted 342K contracts, suggesting confidence that key support levels will hold.
Retail Takeaway:
Retail traders are hedging downside risks, but put shorting suggests they also expect support to hold, indicating mixed sentiment.
FII Activity in Options Market
FIIs showed a bullish tilt, with aggressive call additions and moderate put shorting.
Call Options:
- Added 74K contracts, showing strong bullish intent.
- Shorted 2.7K contracts, reinforcing a positive bias.
Put Options:
- Added 96K contracts, hedging against downside risks.
- Shorted 13.4K contracts, reducing their bearish exposure.
FII Takeaway:
FIIs are positioning for a potential upside move, with high call additions and put shorting, signaling reduced bearish conviction.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 4788 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 4851 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22094-22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” – Mark Douglas
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 22367 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22176 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 22100 Tgt 22136, 22190 and 22244 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 22050 Tgt 22012, 21962 and 21910 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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